PBR
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | +0.2%658/1254 up | +0.7%694/1250 up | +3.2%777/1234 up | +7.3%790/1192 up |
| Big drop Oct 26 (-2.1% or worse) | 64 | — | +0.1%33/64 up | +0.4%34/63 up | +5.0%43/62 up | +11.8%41/58 up |
| Big gain (+2.7% or better) | 57 | — | +0.6%33/57 up | +1.8%35/57 up | +3.1%34/55 up | +6.6%32/52 up |
| Earnings beat | 13 | -3.0%6/13 up | +0.4%7/13 up | +2.5%9/13 up | +5.4%10/13 up | +17.3%10/12 up |
| Earnings miss | 6 | -0.1%3/6 up | -0.2%2/6 up | -0.9%1/6 up | +4.2%4/6 up | -3.1%3/6 up |
| 52-week high | 12 | — | +0.1%6/12 up | +0.4%7/12 up | +3.7%8/11 up | +5.8%6/10 up |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | -4.6%0/1 up | -3.5%0/1 up | -3.6%0/1 up | +12.8%1/1 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 16 | — | +0.8%10/16 up | +1.9%12/16 up | -1.6%7/16 up | +3.2%10/16 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 15 | — | +0.3%8/15 up | +0.4%8/15 up | +1.9%9/15 up | +5.2%10/15 up |
| RSI oversold | 11 | — | 0.0%5/11 up | +4.3%8/11 up | +11.3%8/11 up | +11.7%10/11 up |
| RSI overbought | 25 | — | +0.4%14/25 up | 0.0%12/25 up | +0.1%12/24 up | +3.2%14/23 up |
| Volume spike Oct 26 | 9 | — | -1.2%1/9 up | +1.8%4/8 up | +7.4%5/7 up | -0.6%3/7 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Oct 27 | 1 | — | -1.2%0/1 up | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | +1.9%1/1 up | +1.6%1/1 up | -1.1%0/1 up | -9.5%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | — | +1.8%1/1 up | +0.5%1/1 up | +7.1%1/1 up | -8.3%0/1 up |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | +4.7%1/1 up | +3.1%1/1 up | -3.1%0/1 up | -13.8%0/1 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | — | +2.3%1/2 up | -5.1%1/2 up | -3.1%0/1 up | -13.8%0/1 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is PBR's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1254 | +0.16% | 658 of 1254 | +0.10% |
-14%
+13%
|
|
| 1 week | 1250 ≈250 indep. | +0.75% | 694 of 1250 | +0.54% |
-21%
+23%
|
|
| 1 month | 1234 ≈59 indep. | +3.20% | 777 of 1234 | +2.24% |
-29%
+51%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1192 ≈19 indep. | +7.31% | 790 of 1192 | +1.81% |
-23%
+85%
|
Range of outcomes: all of PBR's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 815 | 0.0%814 events vs 0.0% | 0.0%810 events vs 0.0% | +0.8%794 events vs +0.8% | +2.3%752 events vs +2.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 241 | +0.3%241 events vs +0.3% | +1.9%241 events vs +1.9% | +7.8%241 events vs +7.8% | +10.3%241 events vs +10.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 782 | +0.1%781 events vs +0.1% | +0.3%777 events vs +0.3% | +0.7%761 events vs +0.7% | +2.4%719 events vs +2.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 424 | +0.2%424 events vs +0.2% | +1.3%424 events vs +1.3% | +7.4%424 events vs +7.4% | +10.3%424 events vs +10.3% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 750 | +0.2%750 events vs +0.2% | +0.7%750 events vs +0.7% | +1.2%734 events vs +1.2% | +4.3%705 events vs +4.3% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 486 | +0.1%485 events vs +0.1% | +0.8%481 events vs +0.8% | +6.4%481 events vs +6.4% | +10.4%468 events vs +10.4% |
The same event split by where PBR stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.