PKG
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- PKG +1.38% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $2.92 expected (8 analysts); it moved ±3.6% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Wells Fargo maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $246 → $245.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices PKG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
232.71 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
236.15 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 233.13 · prior close 229.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
227.25 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
223.94 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 226.37 | 2 in 10 days | 233.60 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 227.25 | 3 in 10 days | 232.71 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 228.06 | 4 in 10 days | 231.87 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 222.01 | 2 in 10 weeks | 238.19 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 223.94 | 3 in 10 weeks | 236.15 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 225.74 | 4 in 10 weeks | 234.26 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From PKG's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among PKG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 320.00 +37.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 258.80 +11.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 11, 2026 |
255.77 +9.7% |
| 50-day average | 238.17 +2.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 236.15 +1.3% |
| Now | 233.13 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
229.96 -1.4% |
| 200-day average | 225.13 -3.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 223.94 -3.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
186.94 -19.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 167.00 -28.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.