PM
Moving with the market
- PM +0.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#18 H | +0.5%#73 H | +1.1%#204 H | +3.2%#197 M |
| Big drop (-1.9% or worse) | 66 | +0.2%#83 H | +0.6%#167 H | +2.1%#136 H | +6.4%#128 M |
| Big gain (+1.9% or better) | 66 | +0.2%#76 H | +0.9%#37 H | +2.8%#70 H | +5.8%#121 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +1.2%#9 M | +0.4%#243 M | +1.9%#163 M | +2.2%#261 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | +0.1%– | 0.0%– | +6.1%– | +13.3%– |
| 52-week high | 13 | 0.0%#293 M | 0.0%#281 M | +1.6%#143 M | +9.9%#95 L |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 15 | +0.5%#7 M | -0.5%#440 M | +2.5%#111 M | +3.2%#355 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 13 | +0.3%#39 M | -0.6%#472 M | +1.8%#158 M | +3.2%#383 M |
| RSI oversold | 8 | +0.1%#227 M | +1.5%#147 M | +7.5%#3 M | +11.9%#56 L |
| RSI overbought | 20 | 0.0%#144 H | +1.0%#36 H | +1.6%#106 M | +0.5%#270 M |
| Reddit spike | 28 | +0.5%#7 H | +1.9%#1 H | +5.3%#2 H | +6.0%#32 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is PM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Reddit spike
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 28 ≈25 indep. | +0.48% (-0.4 to +0.6) | High | #7 of 92 | 61% | +0.09% |
-1%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 28 ≈25 indep. | +1.92% (+1.0 to +2.5) | High | #1 of 92 | 68% | +2.03% |
-5%
+11%
|
|
| 1 month | 28 ≈21 indep. | +5.27% (+3.0 to +7.4) | High | #2 of 91 | 79% | +3.40% |
-6%
+18%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 27 ≈14 indep. | +5.99% (+1.3 to +12.7) | Medium | #32 of 87 | 78% | +1.06% |
-12%
+32%
|
Range of outcomes: all of PM's Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Reddit spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 20 | +0.6%M vs +0.1% | +2.0%M vs +0.3% | +5.3%M vs +0.4% | +4.1%M vs +1.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 8 | +0.1%L vs +0.2% | +1.0%L vs +0.9% | +6.1%L vs +3.8% | +6.2%L vs +8.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 20 | +0.6%M vs +0.2% | +2.1%M vs +0.5% | +5.7%M vs +1.0% | +6.4%M vs +1.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 8 | +0.1%L vs +0.1% | +0.9%L vs +0.6% | +2.8%L vs +1.7% | +6.0%L vs +4.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 18 | +0.5%M vs +0.2% | +2.1%M vs +0.5% | +5.7%M vs +1.0% | +8.4%M vs +1.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 10 | +0.5%M vs +0.1% | +0.9%M vs +0.6% | +2.8%M vs +1.7% | +4.1%M vs +5.3% |
The same event split by where PM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest Reddit spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $186.44 | 34 mentions vs 3.3/day the week before | +3.3% | +6.5% | +1.0% | … |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Jan 20 @ $162.94 | 28 mentions vs 8.1/day the week before | +1.0% | +7.0% | +9.8% | -7.5% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Jan 20 @ $162.94 | 36 mentions vs 2.6/day the week before | +1.0% | +7.0% | +9.8% | -7.5% |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Dec 19 @ $151.48 | 91 mentions vs 25.6/day the week before | +1.8% | +4.2% | +9.4% | +6.4% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Dec 11 @ $145.79 | 70 mentions vs 2.7/day the week before | +1.8% | +4.2% | +10.9% | +16.8% |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Oct 7 @ $149.27 | 96 mentions vs 2.6/day the week before | +0.5% | +2.9% | -4.0% | +1.3% |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Jul 9 @ $170.30 | 46 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | +1.7% | +3.0% | -5.5% | -12.3% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Apr 23 @ $159.65 | 261 mentions vs 48.4/day the week before | +1.2% | +1.9% | +4.2% | -3.5% |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Mar 31 @ $150.74 | 33 mentions vs 9.0/day the week before | -0.4% | -4.7% | +8.0% | +12.7% |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Mar 31 @ $150.74 | 42 mentions vs 10.7/day the week before | -0.4% | -4.7% | +8.0% | +12.7% |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Mar 18 @ $144.82 | 164 mentions vs 54.0/day the week before | +0.3% | -0.2% | +5.2% | +20.3% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | Jan 31 @ $122.57 | 31 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | +0.1% | +10.9% | +18.2% | +32.4% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Oct 16 @ $112.55 | 38 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | -0.6% | +8.7% | +6.0% | +1.7% |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Sep 27 @ $112.30 | 69 mentions vs 2.7/day the week before | +0.6% | -1.3% | +8.2% | +1.8% |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Sep 11 @ $115.33 | 70 mentions vs 12.9/day the week before | -0.5% | -3.4% | -3.6% | +4.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.