PM
Moving with the market
- PM +0.47% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#18 H | +0.5%#73 H | +1.1%#204 H | +3.2%#197 M |
| Big drop (-1.9% or worse) | 66 | +0.2%#83 H | +0.6%#167 H | +2.1%#136 H | +6.4%#128 M |
| Big gain (+1.9% or better) | 66 | +0.2%#76 H | +0.9%#37 H | +2.8%#70 H | +5.8%#121 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | +1.2%#9 M | +0.4%#243 M | +1.9%#163 M | +2.2%#261 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | +0.1%– | 0.0%– | +6.1%– | +13.3%– |
| 52-week high | 13 | 0.0%#293 M | 0.0%#281 M | +1.6%#143 M | +9.9%#95 L |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 15 | +0.5%#7 M | -0.5%#440 M | +2.5%#111 M | +3.2%#355 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 13 | +0.3%#39 M | -0.6%#472 M | +1.8%#158 M | +3.2%#383 M |
| RSI oversold | 8 | +0.1%#227 M | +1.5%#147 M | +7.5%#3 M | +11.9%#56 L |
| RSI overbought | 20 | 0.0%#144 H | +1.0%#36 H | +1.6%#106 M | +0.5%#270 M |
| Reddit spike | 28 | +0.5%#7 H | +1.9%#1 H | +5.3%#2 H | +6.0%#32 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is PM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 20 | +0.04% (-0.2 to +0.1) | High | #144 of 501 | 50% | +0.28% |
-2%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 20 | +1.04% (0.0 to +1.8) | High | #36 of 501 | 65% | +0.44% |
-6%
+7%
|
|
| 1 month | 20 ≈18 indep. | +1.56% (-0.8 to +3.6) | Medium | #106 of 501 | 60% | -1.22% |
-15%
+10%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 20 ≈12 indep. | +0.53% (-3.2 to +9.2) | Medium | #270 of 501 | 55% | +1.91% |
-8%
+24%
|
Range of outcomes: all of PM's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 17 | +0.1%M vs +0.1% | +0.7%M vs +0.3% | +1.6%M vs +0.4% | +1.3%M vs +1.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 20 | 0.0%H vs +0.2% | +1.0%H vs +0.5% | +1.6%M vs +1.0% | +0.5%M vs +1.4% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 20 | 0.0%H vs +0.2% | +1.0%H vs +0.5% | +1.6%M vs +1.0% | +0.5%M vs +1.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where PM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | May 12 @ $183.82 | RSI 73.1, +2.6% on the day | +0.5% | +2.5% | -3.3% | +0.4% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Feb 25 @ $184.99 | RSI 70.1, +1.5% on the day | -1.2% | -5.7% | -13.6% | -3.2% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Feb 5 @ $177.39 | RSI 70.9, +0.9% on the day | +0.4% | +3.8% | -4.8% | -5.1% |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Jan 14 @ $166.74 | RSI 73.4, +3.1% on the day | +0.9% | -0.6% | +9.6% | -7.9% |
| May 27, 2025 | May 27 @ $170.21 | RSI 70.5, +0.6% on the day | -0.2% | +1.8% | +0.8% | -6.3% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Apr 24 @ $161.51 | RSI 71.6, +1.2% on the day | +0.1% | 0.0% | +4.8% | -4.7% |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Mar 31 @ $150.74 | RSI 70.4, +2.3% on the day | -0.4% | -4.7% | +8.0% | +12.7% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Feb 6 @ $136.80 | RSI 84.2, +10.9% on the day | -0.6% | +2.7% | +3.6% | +19.4% |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Oct 22 @ $122.35 | RSI 76.5, +10.5% on the day | 0.0% | +0.1% | -0.8% | -2.1% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | Aug 8 @ $107.07 | RSI 70.1, +0.5% on the day | -0.2% | +1.4% | +9.6% | +9.0% |
| Jul 11, 2024 | Jul 11 @ $96.68 | RSI 71.1, +2.2% on the day | +0.9% | +2.3% | +10.5% | +15.7% |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Jun 3 @ $93.58 | RSI 70.6, +1.6% on the day | +0.8% | +0.7% | -0.2% | +23.7% |
| May 15, 2024 | May 15 @ $91.41 | RSI 71.3, +0.7% on the day | +0.1% | +0.5% | +1.6% | +18.7% |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Apr 23 @ $88.76 | RSI 73.4, +3.8% on the day | +1.4% | -2.8% | +3.5% | +15.6% |
| Mar 13, 2024 | Mar 13 @ $85.45 | RSI 72.0, +0.7% on the day | -1.4% | -0.4% | -5.5% | +9.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.