RDDT
Up on advertising budget share gains
- RDDT +2.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.60%: +1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Horizon Media reports Reddit's share of client digital spending grew 20-25% annually, per Jefferies (Proactive Investors). (proactiveinvestors.com)
- 8 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 79% positive over the week.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: Needham reiterated Buy, target $300.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 641 | — | -0.1%315/640 up | +1.2%351/636 up | +6.8%383/620 up | +9.1%340/578 up |
| Big drop (-5.1% or worse) | 24 | — | +0.3%12/24 up | -3.9%8/24 up | +8.1%16/24 up | +2.4%12/21 up |
| Big gain (+6.0% or better) | 22 | — | -0.4%9/22 up | +1.7%13/22 up | +1.9%13/22 up | +7.0%10/18 up |
| Earnings beat | 10 | -0.1%5/10 up | +1.9%7/10 up | +2.1%5/10 up | +5.8%7/10 up | +6.9%6/9 up |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 2 | — | +2.4%2/2 up | -4.6%0/2 up | -8.6%1/2 up | -13.0%0/2 up |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 5 | — | +2.6%3/5 up | -3.6%2/5 up | -10.4%1/5 up | +11.9%2/4 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 4 | — | +1.2%3/4 up | -5.8%1/4 up | -13.2%0/4 up | +9.5%2/3 up |
| RSI oversold | 4 | — | +2.6%2/4 up | +2.0%2/4 up | -3.5%2/4 up | +30.1%2/4 up |
| RSI overbought | 9 | — | -0.6%4/9 up | +2.9%7/9 up | +5.7%6/9 up | +3.1%5/9 up |
| Volume spike | 14 | — | +1.5%8/14 up | -0.4%6/14 up | +5.1%8/13 up | +11.4%7/11 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 52 | — | -0.4%22/52 up | +0.2%26/52 up | +3.6%27/51 up | +6.7%26/47 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 2 | — | -1.8%0/2 up | -0.1%1/2 up | +9.0%2/2 up | +14.7%2/2 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | — | -3.4%0/1 up | +1.0%1/1 up | -5.0%0/1 up | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is RDDT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 640 | -0.10% | 315 of 640 | -0.18% |
-21%
+42%
|
|
| 1 week | 636 ≈128 indep. | +1.17% | 351 of 636 | +0.50% |
-34%
+52%
|
|
| 1 month | 620 ≈30 indep. | +6.83% | 383 of 620 | +3.99% |
-50%
+103%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 578 ≈10 indep. | +9.09% | 340 of 578 | +3.26% |
-52%
+194%
|
Range of outcomes: all of RDDT's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 229 | -0.1%229 events vs -0.1% | -0.6%229 events vs -0.6% | -5.7%229 events vs -5.7% | -18.4%223 events vs -18.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 213 | -0.1%212 events vs -0.1% | +1.3%208 events vs +1.3% | +4.4%192 events vs +4.4% | +20.4%156 events vs +20.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 339 | +0.1%338 events vs +0.1% | +1.7%337 events vs +1.7% | +8.2%337 events vs +8.2% | -2.8%326 events vs -2.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 253 | -0.4%253 events vs -0.4% | -0.1%250 events vs -0.1% | +2.6%234 events vs +2.6% | +22.9%203 events vs +22.9% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 360 | 0.0%359 events vs 0.0% | +1.4%357 events vs +1.4% | +9.1%351 events vs +9.1% | +1.4%344 events vs +1.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 262 | 0.0%262 events vs 0.0% | +1.0%260 events vs +1.0% | +1.9%250 events vs +1.9% | +13.5%215 events vs +13.5% |
The same event split by where RDDT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.