RIOT
Moving with the market
- RIOT +0.10% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Filing: 8-K: material agreement (item 1.01) (filing)
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (Oct 14): After its 12 oversold readings in the past 5 years, RIOT was higher a day later 4 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -5.5% and +0.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target $43.00 → $35.50.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RIOT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
15.86 +5.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
16.85 +11.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 15.11 · prior close 15.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
14.38 -4.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
13.53 -10.4% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 14.15 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 16.11 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 14.38 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 15.86 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 14.59 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 15.63 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 13.06 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 17.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 13.53 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 16.85 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 13.99 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 16.30 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RIOT's daily swings (about 5.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -9.2% | — | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -9.1% | +14.8% | +12.6% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -14.1% | +17.9% | +14.5% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -6.4% | +26.8% | +1.0% | -19.8% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -12.5% | -10.2% | -15.8% | -15.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -10.2% | +7.9% | -14.5% | -11.6% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | -9.4% | +22.8% | +67.4% | +10.1% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -7.6% | -8.2% | +30.5% | +104.0% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among RIOT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 17, 2021 |
77.90 +415.4% |
| Highest analyst target | 42.00 +177.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 31.20 +106.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 23, 2026 |
28.69 +89.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 22.00 +45.6% |
| 50-day average | 20.18 +33.5% |
| 200-day average | 19.49 +29.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 16.85 +11.5% |
| Now | 15.11 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
15.10 -0.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 13.53 -10.5% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
11.83 -21.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.