RIVN
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RIVN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
12.49 +2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
12.91 +6.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 12.16 | |
| Bargain buy side |
11.84 -2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
11.45 -5.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 11.74 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 12.60 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 11.84 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 12.49 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 11.93 | 4 in 10 days | 12.39 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 11.23 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 13.17 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 11.45 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 12.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 11.66 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 12.68 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RIVN's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | +6.4% | +3.8% | -4.7% | — |
| Jul 9, 2026 | +8.8% | -5.7% | -11.7% | -20.9% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | +5.2% | +28.9% | +6.8% | -1.0% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +5.3% | +6.3% | +12.6% | +3.2% |
| May 29, 2026 | +7.2% | +0.3% | +6.4% | -1.4% |
| May 20, 2026 | +6.4% | +10.7% | +10.0% | +16.6% |
| Mar 23, 2026 | +5.8% | -8.1% | +12.5% | -5.6% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | +7.8% | +19.8% | +11.8% | -3.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among RIVN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 16, 2021 |
172.01 +1314.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 25.00 +105.6% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 19, 2025 |
22.45 +84.6% |
| Mean analyst target | 18.24 +50.0% |
| 200-day average | 15.46 +27.2% |
| 50-day average | 14.53 +19.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 12.91 +6.2% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
12.16 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 11.45 -5.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 26, 2026 |
11.43 -6.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 10.00 -17.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.