RJF

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• RJF −0.97% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Sep 28): After its 12 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, RJF typically gained 5.5% over the next month (median) and was higher 67% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.3% and +7.0%. An ordinary month: +1.5%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #25 of 497.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.