RSP
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- RSP +1.00% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices RSP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
213.24 +0.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
214.68 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 214.21 · prior close 212.09 | |
| Bargain buy side |
210.94 -0.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
209.53 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 210.57 | 2 in 10 days | 213.62 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 210.94 | 3 in 10 days | 213.24 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 211.29 | 4 in 10 days | 212.89 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 208.71 | 2 in 10 weeks | 215.52 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 209.53 | 3 in 10 weeks | 214.68 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 210.30 | 4 in 10 weeks | 213.89 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From RSP's daily swings (about 0.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among RSP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 14, 2026 |
221.94 +3.6% |
| 50-day average | 215.40 +0.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 214.68 +0.2% |
| Now | 214.21 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
212.09 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 209.53 -2.2% |
| 200-day average | 205.23 -4.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
179.31 -16.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 23 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.