S
Moving with the market
- S +0.02% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices S only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
23.68 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
24.78 +8.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 22.83 · prior close 22.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
21.99 -3.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
21.01 -7.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 21.73 | 2 in 10 days | 23.96 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 21.99 | 3 in 10 days | 23.68 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 22.24 | 4 in 10 days | 23.42 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 20.45 | 2 in 10 weeks | 25.46 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 21.01 | 3 in 10 weeks | 24.78 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 21.54 | 4 in 10 weeks | 24.17 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From S's daily swings (about 3.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -6.4% | — | — | — |
| Sep 25, 2026 | -6.7% | +12.0% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.2% | -7.7% | +8.2% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -5.6% | -4.6% | +6.2% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -4.6% | +5.9% | +21.9% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | -5.2% | +9.5% | +24.3% | +42.1% |
| May 29, 2026 | -8.2% | -3.6% | +2.5% | +30.2% |
| May 12, 2026 | -3.6% | +12.2% | -6.2% | +41.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among S's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 12, 2021 |
76.30 +234.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 9, 2026 |
26.27 +15.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 24.78 +8.6% |
| Now | 22.83 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
22.82 0.0% |
| 50-day average | 22.53 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 21.01 -7.9% |
| 200-day average | 17.14 -24.9% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
11.94 -47.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.