SG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SG +4.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +4.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
10.47 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
10.90 +7.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 10.58 · prior close 10.14 | |
| Bargain buy side |
9.82 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
9.43 -7.0% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 9.71 | 2 in 10 days | 10.59 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 9.82 | 3 in 10 days | 10.47 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 9.91 | 4 in 10 days | 10.37 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 9.21 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 11.16 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 9.43 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 10.90 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 9.64 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 10.67 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SG's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among SG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 19, 2021 |
53.00 +400.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 10.90 +3.1% |
| Now | 10.58 |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
10.58 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
10.14 -4.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 9.43 -10.9% |
| 50-day average | 7.45 -29.6% |
| 200-day average | 7.02 -33.6% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
4.70 -55.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.