SMH
Reddit attention is surging
- SMH −1.72% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, volume spike (3.2× average volume on pace today so far): After its 3 volume spikes in the past 5 years, SMH was higher a day later 2 times out of 3. History, not a forecast.
- 11 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 22% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 3.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SMH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
576.19 +2.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
590.66 +4.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 555.03 · prior close 564.74 | |
| Bargain buy side |
553.52 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
539.96 -4.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 549.92 | 2 in 10 days | 579.96 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 553.52 | 3 in 10 days | 576.19 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 556.89 | 4 in 10 days | 572.70 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 532.14 | 2 in 10 weeks | 599.33 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 539.96 | 3 in 10 weeks | 590.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 547.34 | 4 in 10 weeks | 582.69 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SMH's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -2.8% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -4.8% | +10.1% | +8.6% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.5% | +2.5% | +9.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.1% | -2.4% | -1.6% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -3.3% | -3.7% | -2.6% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.7% | +2.0% | +3.3% | -0.7% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -3.8% | +3.2% | -2.0% | +9.0% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -4.0% | -1.2% | -13.4% | -0.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among SMH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
668.91 +20.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 590.66 +6.4% |
| 50-day average | 579.59 +4.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
564.74 +1.7% |
| Now | 555.03 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 539.96 -2.7% |
| 200-day average | 510.44 -8.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
324.09 -41.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.