SNDK
Down on China CXMT competition concerns
- SNDK −5.33% on the last session vs SPY −1.08%: −4.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- News: Fool reports renewed selling pressure from Chinese rival CXMT's DRAM progress reigniting memory pricing worries. (fool.com)
- Memory & storage basket -5.2% (-4.1 pts vs SPY; NTAP -7.0%, SKHY -6.1%, STX -4.5%, WDC -4.4%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: SK Hynix (Seoul) -1.7%.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (93 mentions vs 24.7/day the week before): After its 17 mention spikes in the past 5 years, SNDK was higher a week later 11 times out of 17; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +9.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 65 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.6× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Mizuho maintained Outperform, raised target $1,875 → $2,050.
- 3 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): CPI m/m 0.6% vs 0.6% expected (in line); CPI y/y 3.7% vs 3.6% expected (hotter); S&P futures -0.68%, 10-year yield +12bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 419 | — | +0.5%229/418 up | +5.0%268/414 up | +18.3%299/398 up | +121.0%288/356 up |
| Big drop Oct 12 (-5.6% or worse) | 16 | — | -1.0%5/16 up | -1.0%7/15 up | +10.8%10/15 up | +8.5%8/12 up |
| Big gain (+9.6% or better) | 12 | — | +0.1%6/12 up | +1.2%6/12 up | +16.0%7/11 up | +3.5%4/7 up |
| Earnings beat | 6 | +5.8%4/6 up | +4.4%5/6 up | +8.4%6/6 up | +26.2%4/6 up | +106.0%5/5 up |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 3 | — | 0.0%2/3 up | +8.0%2/3 up | +46.9%3/3 up | +64.5%2/3 up |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| RSI oversold | 1 | — | +4.5%1/1 up | +6.2%1/1 up | +12.4%1/1 up | +53.3%1/1 up |
| RSI overbought | 10 | — | +0.6%5/10 up | +9.5%9/10 up | +34.7%7/10 up | +98.3%7/10 up |
| Volume spike | 5 | — | +4.5%5/5 up | +8.6%5/5 up | +64.8%5/5 up | +123.4%5/5 up |
| Theme selloff latest session hindsight | 31 | — | -0.9%13/30 up | +3.8%17/30 up | +7.4%18/29 up | +142.5%17/25 up |
| Theme rally hindsight | 40 | — | -0.2%19/40 up | +4.7%24/40 up | +19.5%28/39 up | +101.2%27/36 up |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 18 | — | -0.9%9/18 up | +5.3%11/17 up | +19.1%11/16 up | +85.2%9/13 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 2 | — | +4.5%2/2 up | +17.5%2/2 up | +29.0%2/2 up | -9.5%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 4 | — | -1.9%0/4 up | -10.0%0/4 up | +12.4%2/4 up | +79.7%2/4 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SNDK's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Volume spike
Volume at least 3x the prior 20 sessions' average.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 5 | +4.55% | 5 of 5 | +4.73% |
+1%
+10%
|
|
| 1 week | 5 | +8.56% | 5 of 5 | +8.91% |
+4%
+35%
|
|
| 1 month | 5 ≈4 indep. | +64.80% | 5 of 5 | +66.85% |
+12%
+106%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 5 ≈4 indep. | +123.35% | 5 of 5 | +125.37% |
+53%
+447%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SNDK's volume spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Volume spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 1 | +1.1%1 events vs +0.3% | +11.5%1 events vs +6.0% | +64.8%1 events vs +26.7% | +123.4%1 events vs +120.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 4 | +4.5%4 events vs +0.6% | +10.0%4 events vs +6.2% | +85.1%4 events vs +28.6% | +167.2%4 events vs +142.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 3 | +2.2%3 events vs +0.8% | +11.5%3 events vs +5.7% | +105.5%3 events vs +21.9% | +211.0%3 events vs +123.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 2 | +5.7%2 events vs -0.5% | +7.4%2 events vs +2.2% | +15.2%2 events vs +17.1% | +66.7%2 events vs +175.7% |
The same event split by where SNDK stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest volume spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | Jan 6 @ $349.63 | 3.2x average volume, +27.6% on the day | +1.1% | +11.5% | +64.8% | +123.3% |
| Sep 4, 2025 | Sep 4 @ $62.50 | 3.7x average volume, +17.9% on the day | +9.7% | +34.9% | +105.5% | +211.0% |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Aug 15 @ $44.54 | 3.8x average volume, -4.6% on the day | +2.2% | +4.1% | +105.5% | +446.9% |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Jun 6 @ $39.15 | 4.5x average volume, +0.1% on the day | +6.8% | +8.6% | +18.0% | +80.1% |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Apr 4 @ $30.11 | 3.2x average volume, -21.3% on the day | +4.5% | +6.2% | +12.4% | +53.3% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.