SNOW
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SNOW −1.63% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −1.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Against the group: its software peers +2.7% (+2.7 pts vs SPY).
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices SNOW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
346.06 +3.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
360.13 +7.5% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 329.63 · prior close 335.08 | |
| Bargain buy side |
324.45 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
311.77 -7.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 321.07 | 2 in 10 days | 349.70 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 324.45 | 3 in 10 days | 346.06 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 327.63 | 4 in 10 days | 342.70 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 304.56 | 2 in 10 weeks | 368.66 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 311.77 | 3 in 10 weeks | 360.13 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 318.65 | 4 in 10 weeks | 352.35 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From SNOW's daily swings (about 3.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.5% | +3.7% | +6.9% | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | -6.8% | -8.2% | -0.4% | +22.5% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -5.9% | -6.8% | +17.6% | +83.1% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | -11.8% | +8.6% | +15.3% | +97.7% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -4.2% | -9.1% | -10.2% | +34.9% |
| Mar 10, 2026 | -4.1% | -0.4% | -24.6% | +36.7% |
| Feb 20, 2026 | -3.7% | -2.4% | +1.0% | -4.0% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | -7.7% | -21.4% | -14.6% | -31.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among SNOW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 16, 2021 |
401.89 +21.9% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 9, 2026 |
368.89 +11.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 360.13 +9.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
335.08 +1.7% |
| 50-day average | 333.22 +1.1% |
| Now | 329.63 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 311.77 -5.4% |
| 200-day average | 233.49 -29.2% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
121.11 -63.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.