SNPS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SNPS −0.13% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 1): After its 13 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, SNPS typically lost 6.5% over the next month (median) and was higher only 31% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -10.8% and +4.9%. An ordinary month: +1.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #448 of 497.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, raised target $575 → $620.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#213 H | +0.4%#178 H | +1.0%#238 H | +3.2%#198 M |
| Big drop (-2.9% or worse) | 59 | 0.0%#292 H | +0.9%#142 H | +0.5%#314 H | +5.1%#151 M |
| Big gain Sep 30 (+3.0% or better) | 71 | +0.1%#244 H | +0.4%#223 H | +0.2%#353 H | -1.0%#423 M |
| Earnings beat | 19 | -1.0%#476 M | -0.7%#375 M | +0.6%#275 M | +1.3%#315 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | +13.0%– | +9.7%– | +24.9%– | +20.1%– |
| 52-week high | 9 | +1.2%#26 M | +0.2%#230 M | -0.9%#303 M | +0.9%#236 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | +2.7%#56 L | +2.8%#81 L | +10.6%#43 L | +17.6%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg Oct 1 | 14 | -0.1%#272 M | -2.4%#366 M | -6.5%#448 M | -4.6%#390 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 10 | +0.4%#216 M | +0.1%#267 M | -5.5%#451 M | +0.5%#283 M |
| RSI oversold | 13 | 0.0%#292 M | +4.4%#40 M | +6.7%#60 M | +15.2%#13 M |
| RSI overbought Oct 1 | 18 | -0.2%#285 M | -1.1%#365 M | -1.0%#287 M | -13.7%#449 M |
| Reddit spike | 1 | +13.0%– | +9.7%– | +24.9%– | +20.1%– |
| Analyst upgrade | 5 | -0.7%#12 L | -2.0%#11 L | -6.2%#12 L | -10.5%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 5 | -2.9%#10 L | +9.6%#1 L | +0.2%#6 L | +8.6%– |
| Insider buy | 1 | -0.1%– | +15.1%– | +2.3%– | +6.7%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | +4.1%– | +4.4%– | -2.6%– | +1.6%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is SNPS's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-2.9% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 59 | +0.04% (-0.5 to +0.4) | High | #292 of 500 | 51% | +0.20% |
-7%
+13%
|
|
| 1 week | 59 | +0.93% (+0.3 to +1.9) | High | #142 of 500 | 59% | +0.33% |
-14%
+15%
|
|
| 1 month | 58 ≈38 indep. | +0.46% (-1.2 to +4.0) | High | #314 of 500 | 53% | +0.20% |
-17%
+32%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 56 ≈15 indep. | +5.15% (+1.6 to +6.4) | Medium | #151 of 499 | 66% | -1.66% |
-18%
+41%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SNPS's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 23 | -0.2%H vs 0.0% | +1.2%H vs +0.1% | +2.7%M vs +0.1% | +6.4%M vs +3.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 36 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +0.5%H vs +0.8% | -0.2%H vs +1.8% | +2.0%M vs +5.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 24 | -0.1%H vs +0.1% | +1.0%H vs +0.3% | +3.2%M vs -0.7% | +1.7%M vs +0.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 35 | +0.2%H vs 0.0% | +0.9%H vs +0.3% | -0.1%H vs +3.4% | +5.2%M vs +6.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 17 | +0.3%M vs +0.1% | +1.5%M vs +0.2% | -4.9%M vs -0.9% | -0.8%M vs -1.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 42 | -0.1%H vs +0.1% | +0.5%H vs +0.5% | +0.6%H vs +3.8% | +6.1%M vs +6.8% |
The same event split by where SNPS stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 14 @ $381.43 | -4.0% on the day (line -2.7%) | -3.6% | +5.4% | … | … |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Aug 28 @ $442.61 | -4.8% on the day (line -2.7%) | -0.7% | -11.0% | -6.2% | … |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jul 17 @ $384.28 | -7.8% on the day (line -2.9%) | -1.5% | -2.8% | +7.5% | … |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 2 @ $437.16 | -3.8% on the day (line -2.9%) | +1.2% | +1.9% | -10.3% | +12.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Jun 5 @ $464.85 | -6.0% on the day (line -2.8%) | +1.9% | -2.4% | -6.5% | -15.3% |
| May 28, 2026 | May 28 @ $480.64 | -8.6% on the day (line -2.7%) | -1.0% | +2.9% | -6.9% | -3.3% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Apr 23 @ $456.85 | -4.3% on the day (line -2.7%) | +9.6% | +5.6% | +14.9% | -18.3% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Apr 10 @ $392.24 | -3.1% on the day (line -2.7%) | +6.5% | +14.6% | +31.6% | +10.6% |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Mar 24 @ $415.62 | -3.9% on the day (line -2.6%) | -1.3% | -4.6% | +9.9% | +11.6% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Mar 12 @ $418.72 | -3.3% on the day (line -2.6%) | -1.5% | +2.3% | -0.2% | +9.0% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Feb 23 @ $420.82 | -4.3% on the day (line -2.6%) | +4.7% | +0.9% | -1.2% | +24.7% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Feb 12 @ $423.35 | -3.4% on the day (line -2.5%) | +3.2% | +3.9% | +0.6% | +20.5% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Jan 29 @ $480.00 | -6.1% on the day (line -2.5%) | -3.1% | -14.5% | -11.5% | +0.5% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Jan 13 @ $511.80 | -4.0% on the day (line -2.5%) | -1.3% | +2.0% | -17.3% | -14.3% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Dec 12 @ $452.95 | -5.1% on the day (line -2.5%) | +0.4% | +2.4% | +11.6% | -5.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.