SNPS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SNPS −0.13% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg (Oct 1): After its 13 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, SNPS typically lost 6.5% over the next month (median) and was higher only 31% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -10.8% and +4.9%. An ordinary month: +1.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses above the 200-day average, that ranks #448 of 497.
- 5 analyst actions in the past 10 days (5 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, raised target $575 → $620.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#213 H | +0.4%#178 H | +1.0%#238 H | +3.2%#198 M |
| Big drop (-2.9% or worse) | 59 | 0.0%#292 H | +0.9%#142 H | +0.5%#314 H | +5.1%#151 M |
| Big gain Sep 30 (+3.0% or better) | 71 | +0.1%#244 H | +0.4%#223 H | +0.2%#353 H | -1.0%#423 M |
| Earnings beat | 19 | -1.0%#476 M | -0.7%#375 M | +0.6%#275 M | +1.3%#315 M |
| Earnings miss | 1 | +13.0%– | +9.7%– | +24.9%– | +20.1%– |
| 52-week high | 9 | +1.2%#26 M | +0.2%#230 M | -0.9%#303 M | +0.9%#236 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | +2.7%#56 L | +2.8%#81 L | +10.6%#43 L | +17.6%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg Oct 1 | 14 | -0.1%#272 M | -2.4%#366 M | -6.5%#448 M | -4.6%#390 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 10 | +0.4%#216 M | +0.1%#267 M | -5.5%#451 M | +0.5%#283 M |
| RSI oversold | 13 | 0.0%#292 M | +4.4%#40 M | +6.7%#60 M | +15.2%#13 M |
| RSI overbought Oct 1 | 18 | -0.2%#285 M | -1.1%#365 M | -1.0%#287 M | -13.7%#449 M |
| Reddit spike | 1 | +13.0%– | +9.7%– | +24.9%– | +20.1%– |
| Analyst upgrade | 5 | -0.7%#12 L | -2.0%#11 L | -6.2%#12 L | -10.5%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 5 | -2.9%#10 L | +9.6%#1 L | +0.2%#6 L | +8.6%– |
| Insider buy | 1 | -0.1%– | +15.1%– | +2.3%– | +6.7%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 1 | +4.1%– | +4.4%– | -2.6%– | +1.6%– |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is SNPS's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 18 | -0.16% (-1.6 to +0.3) | Medium | #285 of 501 | 39% | -0.58% |
-5%
+3%
|
|
| 1 week | 17 | -1.15% (-2.7 to +1.9) | Medium | #365 of 501 | 47% | 0.00% |
-10%
+6%
|
|
| 1 month | 17 ≈14 indep. | -0.96% (-9.2 to +2.7) | Medium | #287 of 501 | 47% | -4.11% |
-19%
+16%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 16 ≈11 indep. | -13.71% (-20.0 to +0.3) | Medium | #449 of 501 | 38% | -11.45% |
-27%
+24%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SNPS's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 15 | -0.2%M vs 0.0% | -1.5%M vs +0.1% | -7.2%M vs +0.1% | -14.1%M vs +3.3% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 2 | -2.0%– vs +0.1% | -2.0%– vs +0.8% | +8.9%– vs +1.8% | -17.5%– vs +5.2% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 17 | -0.2%M vs +0.1% | -1.5%M vs +0.3% | -3.0%M vs -0.7% | -14.1%M vs +0.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 18 | -0.2%M vs +0.1% | -1.1%M vs +0.2% | -1.0%M vs -0.9% | -13.7%M vs -1.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where SNPS stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Oct 1 @ $490.54 | RSI 74.4, +12.8% on the day | -0.1% | … | … | … |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Aug 27 @ $464.89 | RSI 71.7, +13.4% on the day | -4.8% | -10.4% | -10.2% | … |
| May 26, 2026 | May 26 @ $534.56 | RSI 71.7, +1.9% on the day | -1.6% | -4.9% | -14.9% | -23.5% |
| May 8, 2026 | May 8 @ $516.48 | RSI 71.5, +2.2% on the day | -0.1% | -2.7% | -9.9% | -20.3% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 22 @ $477.26 | RSI 71.2, +2.1% on the day | -4.3% | +0.8% | +5.6% | -21.7% |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Jan 6 @ $508.77 | RSI 71.4, +3.0% on the day | +2.1% | +0.6% | -19.3% | -19.4% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Dec 10 @ $475.83 | RSI 70.4, +2.1% on the day | +0.3% | -4.8% | +12.1% | -13.3% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Jul 29 @ $635.81 | RSI 74.4, +7.3% on the day | +1.5% | -1.1% | -5.1% | -26.8% |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Jul 3 @ $548.74 | RSI 75.7, +4.9% on the day | -2.2% | +1.9% | +15.9% | -14.1% |
| May 12, 2025 | May 12 @ $505.59 | RSI 72.0, +4.7% on the day | +2.0% | +2.1% | -1.0% | +23.8% |
| Jun 18, 2024 | Jun 18 @ $620.31 | RSI 70.6, +1.2% on the day | -1.6% | -3.5% | -9.2% | -20.0% |
| Dec 1, 2023 | Dec 1 @ $545.96 | RSI 70.1, +0.5% on the day | -2.7% | -1.8% | -9.8% | +3.5% |
| Nov 8, 2023 | Nov 8 @ $506.16 | RSI 70.3, +1.4% on the day | -0.2% | +4.6% | +5.9% | +13.7% |
| May 18, 2023 | May 18 @ $409.71 | RSI 77.7, +8.7% on the day | -0.3% | +6.0% | +6.3% | +4.0% |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Feb 1 @ $367.05 | RSI 70.6, +3.8% on the day | +0.4% | -1.8% | +0.1% | +0.3% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.