SOXX
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | +0.2%672/1254 up | +0.6%695/1250 up | +2.0%713/1234 up | +6.5%741/1192 up |
| Big drop (-3.1% or worse) | 62 | — | +0.4%34/62 up | +0.8%37/62 up | +2.3%36/60 up | +9.0%37/57 up |
| Big gain (+2.9% or better) | 61 | — | +0.1%33/61 up | +0.9%34/61 up | +3.2%39/61 up | +9.1%42/58 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 16 | — | +0.1%8/16 up | -0.1%8/16 up | +2.7%10/16 up | +9.7%11/16 up |
| 52-week low | 1 | — | -1.2%0/1 up | +5.2%1/1 up | -20.2%0/1 up | +14.6%1/1 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | — | -0.1%4/8 up | -1.8%2/8 up | +0.5%4/8 up | +2.4%4/8 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 8 | — | -0.4%3/8 up | +1.6%5/8 up | +3.5%8/8 up | +4.5%5/8 up |
| RSI oversold | 3 | — | +0.9%2/3 up | +0.8%2/3 up | +6.2%3/3 up | +7.0%2/3 up |
| RSI overbought | 19 | — | -0.1%9/19 up | -0.2%9/19 up | +4.0%15/19 up | +6.8%12/19 up |
| Volume spike | 6 | — | +0.4%4/6 up | -0.1%3/6 up | +6.1%4/6 up | -0.2%3/6 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) latest session | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SOXX's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1254 | +0.15% | 672 of 1254 | +0.08% |
-10%
+19%
|
|
| 1 week | 1250 ≈250 indep. | +0.61% | 695 of 1250 | +0.35% |
-18%
+17%
|
|
| 1 month | 1234 ≈59 indep. | +1.95% | 713 of 1234 | +0.50% |
-24%
+46%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1192 ≈19 indep. | +6.52% | 741 of 1192 | +2.61% |
-32%
+107%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SOXX's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 806 | +0.2%805 events vs +0.2% | +0.7%801 events vs +0.7% | +3.0%785 events vs +3.0% | +11.7%743 events vs +11.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 250 | +0.1%250 events vs +0.1% | +0.7%250 events vs +0.7% | +1.2%250 events vs +1.2% | +8.4%250 events vs +8.4% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 707 | +0.1%707 events vs +0.1% | +0.6%707 events vs +0.6% | +2.1%694 events vs +2.1% | +10.0%689 events vs +10.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 499 | +0.4%498 events vs +0.4% | +0.6%494 events vs +0.6% | +1.8%491 events vs +1.8% | +3.5%454 events vs +3.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 705 | +0.1%705 events vs +0.1% | +0.5%705 events vs +0.5% | +2.1%694 events vs +2.1% | +8.2%675 events vs +8.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 531 | +0.3%530 events vs +0.3% | +0.6%526 events vs +0.6% | +1.3%521 events vs +1.3% | +5.3%498 events vs +5.3% |
The same event split by where SOXX stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.