SPOT
Moving with its group (XLC +1.5%)
- SPOT +1.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $2.85 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±8.9% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The communications ETF (XLC) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- 0 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 79% positive over the week · today's pace is 2.2× its recent daily average.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 3 negative); latest: StoneX downgraded to Hold.
- 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: options price a ±9.5% move through the report.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | +0.1%655/1253 up | +0.6%672/1249 up | +2.3%720/1233 up | +8.5%735/1191 up |
| Big drop (-3.1% or worse) | 58 | — | 0.0%29/58 up | +0.7%35/58 up | +2.5%30/56 up | +7.3%33/51 up |
| Big gain (+3.0% or better) | 57 | — | +0.5%35/57 up | +0.1%29/57 up | +2.9%33/56 up | +10.1%38/50 up |
| Earnings beat | 9 | +8.3%5/9 up | +2.2%6/9 up | +0.3%5/9 up | +3.9%5/9 up | +10.9%5/9 up |
| Earnings miss | 11 | +3.9%6/11 up | +2.2%8/11 up | +3.3%9/11 up | +5.1%7/11 up | +11.4%9/10 up |
| 52-week high | 15 | — | +0.5%8/15 up | +1.6%10/15 up | +4.4%13/15 up | +15.5%13/15 up |
| 52-week low | 2 | — | -2.5%1/2 up | -5.9%1/2 up | +5.2%1/2 up | +5.4%1/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 3 | — | +0.2%2/3 up | +0.1%2/3 up | +11.3%2/2 up | +31.5%1/1 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 2 | — | -0.2%1/2 up | -2.4%0/2 up | -13.5%0/1 up | -31.6%0/1 up |
| RSI oversold | 11 | — | -0.2%5/11 up | +1.0%7/11 up | +6.0%7/11 up | -11.5%4/11 up |
| RSI overbought | 10 | — | +1.2%8/10 up | +2.1%7/10 up | +4.8%8/10 up | +16.6%7/10 up |
| Volume spike | 23 | — | +1.4%15/23 up | +0.3%13/23 up | +0.8%12/23 up | +10.1%18/23 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 10 | — | +0.3%5/10 up | +1.8%7/10 up | +6.4%8/10 up | +13.6%9/10 up |
| Analyst upgrade | 1 | — | -0.2%0/1 up | -0.8%0/1 up | -9.6%0/1 up | -3.3%0/1 up |
| Analyst downgrade now | 1 | — | +0.9%1/1 up | -3.7%0/1 up | -6.3%0/1 up | -17.1%0/1 up |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 3 | — | -3.7%0/3 up | -4.5%1/3 up | -10.5%0/3 up | +2.0%2/2 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is SPOT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1253 | +0.12% | 655 of 1253 | -0.03% |
-17%
+15%
|
|
| 1 week | 1249 ≈250 indep. | +0.57% | 672 of 1249 | +0.18% |
-22%
+23%
|
|
| 1 month | 1233 ≈59 indep. | +2.28% | 720 of 1233 | +0.77% |
-36%
+51%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1191 ≈19 indep. | +8.49% | 735 of 1191 | +3.65% |
-49%
+76%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SPOT's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 731 | +0.3%730 events vs +0.3% | +1.1%726 events vs +1.1% | +4.8%718 events vs +4.8% | +18.9%698 events vs +18.9% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 324 | -0.1%324 events vs -0.1% | -0.4%324 events vs -0.4% | -1.6%316 events vs -1.6% | -0.9%294 events vs -0.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 728 | +0.2%727 events vs +0.2% | +0.8%723 events vs +0.8% | +4.1%720 events vs +4.1% | +17.0%684 events vs +17.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 477 | -0.1%477 events vs -0.1% | +0.1%477 events vs +0.1% | -0.7%464 events vs -0.7% | -3.7%458 events vs -3.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 710 | +0.1%709 events vs +0.1% | +0.6%705 events vs +0.6% | +2.7%703 events vs +2.7% | +13.9%674 events vs +13.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 525 | +0.1%525 events vs +0.1% | +0.3%525 events vs +0.3% | +1.7%511 events vs +1.7% | +0.5%498 events vs +0.5% |
The same event split by where SPOT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.