SPY
The benchmark itself
- SPY +0.74% on the last session; this is the market benchmark.
- 33 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#227 H | +0.4%#123 H | +1.5%#82 H | +4.2%#121 M |
| Big drop (-1.0% or worse) | 44 | 0.0%#467 H | +0.3%#363 H | +1.8%#143 H | +6.8%#36 M |
| Big gain (+1.0% or better) | 48 | +0.2%#24 H | +0.6%#90 H | +2.9%#2 H | +6.0%#52 M |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 20 | +0.5%#13 H | +0.6%#10 H | +2.8%#1 H | +4.0%#9 M |
| 52-week low | 1 | +2.6%– | +3.3%– | +10.7%– | +11.8%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | +0.3%#62 M | +0.1%#264 M | +3.2%#189 M | +8.3%#36 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | -0.7%#481 L | +1.2%#88 L | +4.3%#168 L | +7.3%#90 L |
| RSI oversold | 7 | +0.4%#42 L | +3.1%#37 L | +3.0%#213 L | +11.6%#47 L |
| RSI overbought | 20 | +0.1%#57 H | +0.9%#6 H | +2.0%#19 M | +3.7%#15 M |
| Reddit spike | 105 | 0.0%#89 H | +0.4%#60 H | +1.7%#10 H | +4.3%#46 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is SPY's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Reddit spike
Daily Reddit mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 105 | +0.04% (0.0 to +0.2) | High | #89 of 92 | 51% | 0.00% |
-4%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 105 | +0.36% (0.0 to +0.6) | High | #60 of 92 | 56% | 0.00% |
-11%
+5%
|
|
| 1 month | 103 ≈53 indep. | +1.69% (+0.9 to +2.6) | High | #10 of 91 | 67% | 0.00% |
-10%
+10%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 100 ≈17 indep. | +4.32% (+3.0 to +6.1) | Medium | #46 of 87 | 75% | 0.00% |
-12%
+19%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SPY's Reddit spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Reddit spike by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 88 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.5%H vs +0.4% | +2.0%H vs +1.7% | +4.8%M vs +4.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 12 | +0.6%M vs 0.0% | -1.1%M vs +1.1% | -0.2%L vs +4.2% | +5.4%L vs +6.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 74 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.4%H vs +0.3% | +1.7%H vs +1.3% | +4.0%M vs +4.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 31 | +0.1%H vs +0.1% | -0.8%H vs +0.6% | +1.2%H vs +2.9% | +6.7%M vs +6.0% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 67 | 0.0%H vs +0.1% | +0.4%H vs +0.3% | +1.7%H vs +1.3% | +3.7%M vs +3.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 38 | +0.1%H vs +0.1% | -0.5%H vs +0.5% | +1.7%H vs +2.0% | +6.7%M vs +5.3% |
The same event split by where SPY stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest Reddit spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 23 @ $767.81 | 250 mentions vs 55.6/day the week before | -0.1% | -0.7% | … | … |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sep 9 @ $760.51 | 89 mentions vs 24.4/day the week before | -0.6% | -1.1% | … | … |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Aug 27 @ $769.19 | 112 mentions vs 25.6/day the week before | -0.2% | +0.3% | -0.5% | … |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Aug 4 @ $769.42 | 448 mentions vs 96.6/day the week before | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.8% | … |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $746.43 | 243 mentions vs 61.0/day the week before | -0.1% | -1.0% | +2.8% | … |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 6 @ $749.42 | 255 mentions vs 51.6/day the week before | -0.5% | -0.3% | +2.7% | +2.7% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Jun 12 @ $738.01 | 319 mentions vs 76.7/day the week before | +1.8% | +0.6% | +2.0% | +2.8% |
| May 14, 2026 | May 15 @ $735.44 | 562 mentions vs 94.4/day the week before | -0.1% | +0.9% | +1.5% | +4.8% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Apr 28 @ $708.10 | 322 mentions vs 79.9/day the week before | 0.0% | +1.7% | +6.0% | +2.8% |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $698.12 | 937 mentions vs 196.1/day the week before | +1.2% | +1.0% | +5.3% | +6.2% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Apr 8 @ $672.60 | 308 mentions vs 100.3/day the week before | +0.6% | +3.5% | +8.2% | +11.5% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Mar 19 @ $654.69 | 440 mentions vs 121.1/day the week before | -1.4% | -2.0% | +7.7% | +13.8% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mar 4 @ $679.82 | 364 mentions vs 69.1/day the week before | -0.6% | -1.3% | -4.0% | +10.4% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Feb 24 @ $682.02 | 366 mentions vs 85.0/day the week before | +0.8% | -1.0% | -4.2% | +9.5% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Feb 12 @ $675.99 | 368 mentions vs 110.9/day the week before | +0.1% | +1.2% | -1.8% | +10.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.