SSM
Reddit attention is surging
- SSM +19.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +18.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 1): After its 48 big gains in the past 5 years, SSM typically lost 5.7% over the next week (median) and was higher only 33% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -26.1% and +6.1%. An ordinary week: -2.8%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #323 of 500.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 88% positive over the week · today's pace is 2.2× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,223 | 0.0%#293 H | -2.8%#502 H | -12.5%#500 H | -27.3%#496 M |
| Big drop (-10.5% or worse) | 48 | 0.0%#244 H | 0.0%#255 H | -18.2%#296 H | -37.6%#258 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+10.0% or better) | 49 | -5.0%#259 H | -5.7%#323 H | -14.7%#297 H | -29.5%#288 M |
| Earnings beat | 1 | +12.8%– | +8.5%– | -3.7%– | -37.6%– |
| Earnings miss | 3 | +1.7%#118 L | -7.4%#172 L | -18.0%#172 L | -60.3%#228 L |
| 52-week high | 1 | -3.3%– | -9.3%– | -49.6%– | -65.9%– |
| 52-week low | 11 | 0.0%#134 M | -5.4%#152 M | -7.8%#135 M | -37.6%#106 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | -7.7%#245 M | +1.4%#252 M | +3.9%#232 M | +21.5%#205 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 9 | 0.0%#254 M | +5.6%#237 M | +6.1%#248 M | +83.3%#144 L |
| RSI oversold | 13 | -5.4%#433 M | -8.4%#281 M | -7.8%#275 M | -37.6%#428 M |
| RSI overbought | 8 | +1.6%#252 M | -3.9%#233 M | -13.7%#274 M | -53.8%#305 L |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | +1.1%– | -25.0%– | -38.1%– | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is SSM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed below 200-day avg
The close moves below its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 9 | 0.00% (-3.7 to +8.7) | Medium | #254 of 497 | 44% | +1.40% |
-26%
+30%
|
|
| 1 week | 9 | +5.56% (0.0 to +17.5) | Medium | #237 of 497 | 56% | +5.02% |
-63%
+32%
|
|
| 1 month | 9 | +6.06% (-12.3 to +23.3) | Medium | #248 of 496 | 56% | +4.48% |
-16%
+325%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 9 ≈6 indep. | +83.33% (-1.6 to +121.1) | Low | #144 of 493 | 78% | +79.57% |
-51%
+400%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SSM's crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed below 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 4 | +2.1%L vs 0.0% | +13.4%L vs -2.9% | +14.7%L vs -14.2% | +86.1%L vs -26.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 5 | 0.0%L vs 0.0% | -14.7%L vs -2.2% | -0.5%L vs -9.1% | +57.8%L vs -25.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 3 | +4.2%L vs -0.7% | +21.2%L vs -4.7% | +6.1%L vs -13.9% | +83.3%– vs -33.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 6 | -1.8%L vs 0.0% | -4.6%L vs -1.4% | +9.7%L vs -9.7% | +73.3%L vs -22.9% |
The same event split by where SSM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | Nov 3 @ $7.30 | -10.4% on the day | -3.7% | -22.2% | -12.3% | -1.6% |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Jul 15 @ $5.52 | -27.4% on the day | +8.7% | +13.8% | -0.5% | +57.8% |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Jun 10 @ $6.85 | -36.0% on the day | +16.8% | +17.5% | +20.0% | +31.4% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Mar 6 @ $4.75 | -4.8% on the day | -26.3% | -14.7% | -15.8% | +121.1% |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Sep 19 @ $2.70 | -5.3% on the day | -8.3% | +5.6% | +205.6% | +88.9% |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Aug 16 @ $2.48 | -2.9% on the day | +30.3% | +21.2% | +6.1% | +200.0% |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Jul 16 @ $2.25 | -9.1% on the day | 0.0% | 0.0% | +23.3% | +83.3% |
| Jun 5, 2024 | Jun 5 @ $0.60 | -73.3% on the day | 0.0% | -62.5% | +325.0% | +400.0% |
| Jan 17, 2024 | Jan 17 @ $5.40 | -52.0% on the day | +4.2% | +31.9% | -13.9% | -51.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.