SSM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- SSM +19.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +18.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 1): After its 48 big gains in the past 5 years, SSM typically lost 5.7% over the next week (median) and was higher only 33% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -26.1% and +6.1%. An ordinary week: -2.8%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #323 of 500.
- 1 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 83% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,223 | 0.0%#293 H | -2.8%#502 H | -12.5%#500 H | -27.3%#496 M |
| Big drop (-10.5% or worse) | 48 | 0.0%#244 H | 0.0%#255 H | -18.2%#296 H | -37.6%#258 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+10.0% or better) | 49 | -5.0%#259 H | -5.7%#323 H | -14.7%#297 H | -29.5%#288 M |
| Earnings beat | 1 | +12.8%– | +8.5%– | -3.7%– | -37.6%– |
| Earnings miss | 3 | +1.7%#118 L | -7.4%#172 L | -18.0%#172 L | -60.3%#228 L |
| 52-week high | 1 | -3.3%– | -9.3%– | -49.6%– | -65.9%– |
| 52-week low | 11 | 0.0%#134 M | -5.4%#152 M | -7.8%#135 M | -37.6%#106 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | -7.7%#245 M | +1.4%#252 M | +3.9%#232 M | +21.5%#205 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 9 | 0.0%#254 M | +5.6%#237 M | +6.1%#248 M | +83.3%#144 L |
| RSI oversold | 13 | -5.4%#433 M | -8.4%#281 M | -7.8%#275 M | -37.6%#428 M |
| RSI overbought | 8 | +1.6%#252 M | -3.9%#233 M | -13.7%#274 M | -53.8%#305 L |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | 2 | +1.1%– | -25.0%– | -38.1%– | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is SSM's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-10.5% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 48 | 0.00% (0.0 to +4.2) | High | #244 of 500 | 48% | +0.48% |
-50%
+2900%
|
|
| 1 week | 48 | 0.00% (-6.7 to +4.1) | High | #255 of 500 | 46% | +0.04% |
-96%
+2900%
|
|
| 1 month | 46 ≈26 indep. | -18.24% (-32.9 to -12.0) | High | #296 of 500 | 33% | -20.63% |
-98%
+5900%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 45 ≈13 indep. | -37.57% (-66.2 to +31.4) | Medium | #258 of 499 | 42% | -43.84% |
-99%
+4900%
|
Range of outcomes: all of SSM's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 4 | -9.8%L vs 0.0% | -17.6%L vs -4.4% | -18.2%L vs -12.1% | +51.1%L vs +4.8% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 44 | +1.0%H vs 0.0% | 0.0%H vs -1.3% | -17.1%H vs -12.0% | -51.4%M vs -32.9% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 7 | +5.3%L vs 0.0% | +5.3%L vs -2.9% | -20.0%L vs -14.2% | -51.7%L vs -26.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 41 | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | 0.0%H vs -2.2% | -14.3%H vs -9.1% | -15.8%M vs -25.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 9 | +2.0%M vs -0.7% | 0.0%M vs -4.7% | -14.1%L vs -13.9% | -51.5%L vs -33.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 39 | 0.0%H vs 0.0% | 0.0%H vs -1.4% | -22.2%H vs -9.7% | -26.0%M vs -22.9% |
The same event split by where SSM stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 15 @ $1.76 | -12.4% on the day (line -10.4%) | -4.0% | -27.8% | … | … |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Sep 3 @ $3.50 | -27.1% on the day (line -10.2%) | -11.4% | -39.7% | … | … |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 10 @ $3.05 | -15.0% on the day (line -9.9%) | -10.5% | -14.1% | -24.4% | … |
| May 7, 2026 | May 7 @ $4.85 | -15.8% on the day (line -11.5%) | -8.9% | -21.6% | -12.0% | -26.0% |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Sep 8 @ $11.04 | -23.7% on the day (line -20.0%) | -14.8% | -16.3% | -20.0% | -37.9% |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Jul 15 @ $5.52 | -27.4% on the day (line -25.0%) | +8.7% | +13.8% | -0.5% | +57.8% |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Jun 10 @ $6.85 | -36.0% on the day (line -25.0%) | +16.8% | +17.5% | +20.0% | +31.4% |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Apr 4 @ $4.00 | -31.7% on the day (line -25.0%) | +25.0% | +27.9% | +157.5% | +75.0% |
| Mar 5, 2025 | Mar 5 @ $4.99 | -26.6% on the day (line -24.9%) | -4.8% | -18.8% | +17.3% | +93.9% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Feb 11 @ $9.00 | -25.0% on the day (line -24.9%) | -16.1% | -21.7% | -55.0% | +8.3% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Oct 24 @ $6.38 | -24.8% on the day (line -24.4%) | +17.6% | +7.1% | -16.5% | +103.9% |
| Jun 20, 2024 | Jun 20 @ $0.23 | -89.7% on the day (line -21.9%) | +33.3% | +1066.7% | +900.0% | +1100.0% |
| Jun 5, 2024 | Jun 5 @ $0.60 | -73.3% on the day (line -20.0%) | 0.0% | -62.5% | +325.0% | +400.0% |
| May 28, 2024 | May 28 @ $0.07 | -93.3% on the day (line -20.0%) | +2900.0% | +2900.0% | +3400.0% | +4500.0% |
| May 16, 2024 | May 16 @ $1.50 | -33.3% on the day (line -18.2%) | +25.0% | -25.0% | -85.0% | +65.0% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.