STLD
Analyst cuts weighing on the stock
- STLD −1.41% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Mon after the close: EPS $5.40 expected (9 analysts); it moved ±3.3% on average after its last 8 reports.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Neutral, lowered target $272 → $260.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices STLD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
247.74 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
253.83 +4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 239.49 · prior close 242.92 | |
| Bargain buy side |
238.19 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
232.48 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 236.68 | 2 in 10 days | 249.33 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 238.19 | 3 in 10 days | 247.74 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 239.62 | 4 in 10 days | 246.27 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 229.19 | 2 in 10 weeks | 257.48 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 232.48 | 3 in 10 weeks | 253.83 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 235.59 | 4 in 10 weeks | 250.48 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From STLD's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among STLD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 310.00 +29.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 12, 2026 |
281.45 +17.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 270.82 +13.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 253.83 +6.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
242.92 +1.4% |
| Now | 239.49 |
| 50-day average | 239.35 -0.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 232.48 -2.9% |
| 200-day average | 218.82 -8.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 205.45 -14.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
141.14 -41.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.