STX
Moving with its memory & storage peers
- STX −5.94% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −5.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Memory & storage basket -3.2% (-3.2 pts vs SPY; WDC -5.3%, SNDK -4.1%, SKHY -3.2%, NTAP -3.0%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: SK Hynix (Seoul) -11.8%, Samsung (Seoul) -11.0%.
- Aftermath, big drop (-5.9% today so far, past its big-drop line of -4.0%): After its 60 big drops in the past 5 years, STX was higher a month later 38 times out of 60; half the outcomes fell between -3.7% and +11.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices STX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
744.21 +4.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
783.96 +9.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 671.18 · prior close 713.54 | |
| Bargain buy side |
684.13 -4.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
649.45 -9.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 674.84 | 2 in 10 days | 754.46 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 684.13 | 3 in 10 days | 744.21 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 692.90 | 4 in 10 days | 734.79 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 629.89 | 2 in 10 weeks | 808.29 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 649.45 | 3 in 10 weeks | 783.96 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 668.22 | 4 in 10 weeks | 761.93 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From STX's daily swings (about 4.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | -10.2% | -7.8% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | -3.7% | +3.4% | -9.2% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -9.2% | -9.1% | -11.1% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | -4.7% | +19.8% | +11.3% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -6.8% | +0.5% | -6.7% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -5.5% | -6.8% | -4.7% | -9.0% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -5.2% | -2.7% | -6.5% | +0.9% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -5.1% | -7.0% | -12.0% | -11.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among STX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,600.00 +138.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 1,144.35 +70.5% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
1,092.38 +62.8% |
| 50-day average | 845.07 +25.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 783.96 +16.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
713.54 +6.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 700.00 +4.3% |
| 200-day average | 671.65 +0.1% |
| Now | 671.18 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 649.45 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
210.39 -68.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.