SW

Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• SW −1.16% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 2): After its 14 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, SW typically gained 8.4% over the next month (median) and was higher 71% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +14.0%. An ordinary month: +0.8%. Among S&P 500 stocks after crosses below the 200-day average, that ranks #67 of 496.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.