T
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- T +2.43% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed before the open: EPS $0.60 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±2.9% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.7%): After its 67 big gains in the past 5 years, T was higher a day later 38 times out of 67; half the outcomes fell between -0.6% and +1.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Scotiabank maintained Sector Perform, lowered target $27.50 → $26.50.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices T only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
23.64 +2.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
24.40 +5.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 23.61 · prior close 23.05 | |
| Bargain buy side |
22.47 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
21.78 -5.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 22.29 | 2 in 10 days | 23.84 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 22.47 | 3 in 10 days | 23.64 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 22.65 | 4 in 10 days | 23.46 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 21.38 | 2 in 10 weeks | 24.85 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 21.78 | 3 in 10 weeks | 24.40 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 22.16 | 4 in 10 weeks | 23.98 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From T's daily swings (about 2.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among T's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 36.00 +52.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 28.80 +22.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 27, 2026 |
28.10 +19.0% |
| 50-day average | 24.68 +4.6% |
| 200-day average | 24.52 +3.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 24.40 +3.3% |
| Now | 23.61 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
23.05 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 21.78 -7.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 20.00 -15.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jul 1, 2026 |
19.98 -15.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 43 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.