TIMB
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TIMB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
18.32 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
19.14 +8.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 17.81 · prior close 17.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
17.06 -3.5% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
16.33 -7.6% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 16.87 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 18.53 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 17.06 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 18.32 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 17.25 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 18.12 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 15.92 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 19.64 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 16.33 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 19.14 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 16.73 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 18.69 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TIMB's daily swings (about 3.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | -12.4% | — | — | — |
| Oct 9, 2026 | -3.9% | +3.8% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -3.2% | -2.7% | +6.1% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | -4.8% | +0.9% | +10.5% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | -3.3% | -1.4% | +0.6% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -4.4% | -9.2% | -15.2% | -8.6% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -2.5% | -0.1% | +3.7% | -10.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | -3.5% | +2.1% | -1.9% | -19.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among TIMB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Apr 10, 2026 |
27.75 +55.9% |
| 200-day average | 21.99 +23.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 19.14 +7.5% |
| 50-day average | 18.42 +3.4% |
| Now | 17.81 |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
17.68 -0.7% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 26, 2026 |
16.79 -5.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 16.33 -8.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.