TLT
Reddit attention is surging
- TLT +1.51% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +1.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (55 mentions vs 9.3/day the week before): After its 21 mention spikes in the past 5 years, TLT was higher a day later 9 times out of 21; half the outcomes fell between -0.8% and +0.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 78 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 78% positive over the week · today's pace is 5.9× its recent daily average.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.0× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TLT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
79.36 +0.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
79.93 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 80.08 · prior close 78.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
78.43 -0.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
77.86 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 78.28 | 2 in 10 days | 79.51 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 78.43 | 3 in 10 days | 79.36 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 78.57 | 4 in 10 days | 79.21 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 77.53 | 2 in 10 weeks | 80.28 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 77.86 | 3 in 10 weeks | 79.93 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 78.17 | 4 in 10 weeks | 79.62 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TLT's daily swings (about 0.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TLT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 4, 2020 |
141.02 +76.1% |
| 52-week closing high Feb 27, 2026 |
88.09 +10.0% |
| 200-day average | 83.43 +4.2% |
| 50-day average | 80.41 +0.4% |
| Now | 80.08 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 79.93 -0.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
78.89 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 77.86 -2.8% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 5, 2026 |
77.11 -3.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 24 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.