TOL
Homebuilders rally as long-term rates fall
- TOL +2.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Homebuilders: Long-term rates retreated, boosting homebuilders including TOL, PHM, DHI, and LEN (AOL.com). (AOL.com)
- Homebuilders basket +4.8% (+4.6 pts vs SPY; LEN +6.2%, DHI +4.8%, PHM +3.3%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TOL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
132.33 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
134.75 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 134.03 · prior close 130.41 | |
| Bargain buy side |
128.51 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
126.21 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 127.90 | 2 in 10 days | 132.96 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 128.51 | 3 in 10 days | 132.33 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 129.09 | 4 in 10 days | 131.75 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 124.87 | 2 in 10 weeks | 136.19 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 126.21 | 3 in 10 weeks | 134.75 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 127.47 | 4 in 10 weeks | 133.42 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TOL's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TOL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 13, 2026 |
165.20 +23.3% |
| 200-day average | 143.60 +7.1% |
| 50-day average | 139.83 +4.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 134.75 +0.5% |
| Now | 134.03 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
130.41 -2.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 126.21 -5.8% |
| 52-week closing low May 19, 2026 |
123.68 -7.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 40 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.