TPR
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TPR +4.23% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +4.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+4.2% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.8%): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, TPR was higher a week later 40 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and +6.3%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TPR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
117.33 +2.0% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
120.24 +4.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 119.90 · prior close 115.03 | |
| Bargain buy side |
112.77 -2.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
110.05 -4.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 112.05 | 2 in 10 days | 118.09 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 112.77 | 3 in 10 days | 117.33 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 113.45 | 4 in 10 days | 116.63 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 108.48 | 2 in 10 weeks | 121.98 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 110.05 | 3 in 10 weeks | 120.24 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 111.53 | 4 in 10 weeks | 118.64 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TPR's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TPR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 232.00 +93.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 166.50 +38.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 10, 2026 |
164.16 +36.9% |
| 200-day average | 137.37 +14.6% |
| 50-day average | 123.92 +3.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 120.24 +0.3% |
| Now | 119.90 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
115.03 -4.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 110.05 -8.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
97.55 -18.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 96.00 -19.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 26 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.