TSLA

Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• TSLA +4.65% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +3.9 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 60 big gains in the past 5 years, TSLA typically lost 1.8% over the next week (median) and was higher only 37% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -4.0% and +2.9%. An ordinary week: -0.3%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #471 of 500.
• 5 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
• 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Neutral, lowered target $445 → $415.
• 1 insider or congressional trade in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.