TSM
Falling despite an earnings beat
- TSM −2.85% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 today before the open: EPS $4.60 vs $4.52 expected (beat, +$0.08, +1.7%); revenue $1.49T (+2.3% beat).
- News: Chip stocks tumbled on AI investment worries despite TSM's strong earnings, per Yahoo Finance. (finance.yahoo.com)
- More than its group: its semiconductors peers -1.1% (-1.2 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (3Q2026 beat +2%; today is the reaction session): After its 19 earnings beats in the past 5 years, TSM closed higher on the reaction session 13 times out of 19; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +4.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 106 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 83% positive over the week · today's pace is 7.7× its recent daily average.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: Barclays maintained Overweight, raised target $650 → $665.
- 31 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 30 insider open-market buys.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TSM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
438.30 +1.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
448.78 +4.4% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 417.76 · prior close 430.00 | |
| Bargain buy side |
421.86 -1.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
412.01 -4.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 419.25 | 2 in 10 days | 441.03 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 421.86 | 3 in 10 days | 438.30 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 424.31 | 4 in 10 days | 435.77 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 406.33 | 2 in 10 weeks | 455.05 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 412.01 | 3 in 10 weeks | 448.78 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 417.37 | 4 in 10 weeks | 443.01 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TSM's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -3.0% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -3.5% | +6.8% | +6.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -4.1% | +1.0% | +4.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -2.9% | +0.2% | +1.7% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -7.0% | -1.6% | -9.0% | +3.0% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -3.5% | +3.5% | -6.4% | -1.6% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -6.7% | +2.3% | +5.5% | +3.6% |
| May 15, 2026 | -3.2% | 0.0% | +5.6% | +6.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among TSM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 1,000.00 +139.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 578.22 +38.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
485.80 +16.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 448.78 +7.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 440.00 +5.3% |
| 50-day average | 433.75 +3.8% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
430.00 +2.9% |
| Now | 417.76 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 412.01 -1.4% |
| 200-day average | 392.81 -6.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
272.18 -34.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 29 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.