ULTA
Moving with the market
- ULTA +1.11% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +0.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#371 H | +0.5%#122 H | +1.5%#139 H | +2.3%#241 M |
| Big drop (-2.3% or worse) | 61 | 0.0%#285 H | +1.5%#34 H | +0.5%#270 H | +3.5%#243 M |
| Big gain (+2.4% or better) | 66 | 0.0%#340 H | +0.3%#282 H | +3.8%#33 H | +7.3%#150 M |
| Earnings beat | 18 | -0.3%#333 M | 0.0%#352 M | +0.7%#304 M | +4.5%#130 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | -0.9%– | +3.5%– | +3.5%– | -1.6%– |
| 52-week high | 13 | -0.6%#379 M | -0.1%#322 M | +0.4%#265 M | -1.9%#260 M |
| 52-week low | 4 | +1.6%#102 L | +3.2%#86 L | +5.6%#31 L | +23.0%#41 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 9 | -0.4%#300 M | -1.6%#352 M | -1.2%#398 M | 0.0%#266 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 11 | -1.2%#441 M | -1.1%#451 M | -1.6%#378 M | -2.2%#377 L |
| RSI oversold | 13 | +0.4%#157 M | +1.6%#55 M | -2.1%#479 M | +4.6%#314 M |
| RSI overbought | 17 | -0.3%#359 M | -1.1%#470 M | +1.4%#195 M | 0.0%#266 M |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 9 | +0.3%#39 M | +0.2%#55 M | -0.5%#63 L | +1.9%#51 L |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is ULTA's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big drop (-2.3% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 61 | -0.02% (-0.4 to +0.7) | High | #285 of 500 | 49% | +0.16% |
-14%
+8%
|
|
| 1 week | 61 | +1.47% (+0.2 to +1.6) | High | #34 of 500 | 61% | +0.34% |
-15%
+9%
|
|
| 1 month | 59 ≈35 indep. | +0.49% (-1.2 to +6.5) | High | #270 of 500 | 54% | +0.14% |
-23%
+20%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 56 ≈14 indep. | +3.54% (-4.5 to +10.9) | Medium | #243 of 499 | 54% | +0.15% |
-27%
+39%
|
Range of outcomes: all of ULTA's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 22 | +0.3%H vs +0.1% | +1.6%H vs +0.4% | -0.5%M vs +1.9% | -6.8%M vs +1.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 39 | -0.2%H vs 0.0% | +0.3%H vs +0.5% | +5.9%H vs +1.2% | +8.3%M vs +5.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 24 | -0.2%H vs 0.0% | +1.1%H vs +0.4% | -1.0%M vs +1.7% | -5.3%M vs 0.0% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 37 | +0.1%H vs 0.0% | +1.5%H vs +0.3% | +6.5%H vs +1.3% | +7.5%M vs +5.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 17 | 0.0%M vs 0.0% | +0.6%M vs +0.6% | +0.3%M vs +2.0% | +9.0%M vs +1.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 44 | -0.2%H vs 0.0% | +1.6%H vs +0.1% | +0.8%H vs +0.8% | +2.3%M vs +3.8% |
The same event split by where ULTA stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 16 @ $530.52 | -2.5% on the day (line -2.3%) | +2.5% | +2.5% | … | … |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sep 8 @ $549.23 | -2.6% on the day (line -2.3%) | -1.3% | -0.9% | … | … |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Aug 28 @ $517.50 | -4.2% on the day (line -2.3%) | +3.8% | +9.0% | +5.9% | … |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aug 20 @ $515.14 | -2.4% on the day (line -2.3%) | +1.2% | +4.8% | +8.3% | … |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 10 @ $548.66 | -2.9% on the day (line -2.2%) | -1.3% | -10.1% | -1.2% | … |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Jun 29 @ $459.12 | -6.0% on the day (line -2.3%) | -1.8% | -1.2% | +10.7% | +19.6% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 17 @ $450.75 | -2.8% on the day (line -2.3%) | +1.2% | +7.7% | +8.3% | +20.6% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Jun 3 @ $471.21 | -4.8% on the day (line -2.2%) | -1.8% | -0.1% | -4.0% | +17.1% |
| May 13, 2026 | May 13 @ $492.15 | -2.6% on the day (line -2.2%) | +1.2% | +0.2% | -5.0% | +4.8% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Apr 27 @ $539.66 | -3.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | -0.3% | -4.0% | -6.0% | -7.1% |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Apr 10 @ $520.38 | -2.3% on the day (line -2.1%) | +1.2% | +6.3% | -1.6% | -9.0% |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Mar 23 @ $516.11 | -2.6% on the day (line -2.2%) | -0.2% | -1.2% | +9.3% | -11.0% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Mar 12 @ $624.70 | -4.3% on the day (line -2.1%) | -14.2% | -14.5% | -15.7% | -23.7% |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Feb 10 @ $679.28 | -2.4% on the day (line -2.1%) | +0.6% | +1.5% | -8.0% | -25.6% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Jan 26 @ $661.34 | -3.6% on the day (line -2.0%) | -1.5% | +0.6% | +3.5% | -18.4% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.