UNP

Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• UNP +2.15% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big gain (Oct 2): After its 61 big gains in the past 5 years, UNP typically gained 0.2% over the next day (median) and was higher 52% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +0.9%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #151 of 500.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.