USO
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- USO +2.42% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, mention spike (trendy) (Oct 9): After its 12 mention spikes in the past 5 years, USO was higher a week later 4 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -8.6% and +4.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 6 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 74% positive over the week.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days, including 1 insider sale not under a 10b5-1 plan and 1 insider open-market buy.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices USO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
157.22 +2.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
161.86 +5.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 157.28 · prior close 153.56 | |
| Bargain buy side |
149.99 -2.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
145.69 -5.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 148.84 | 2 in 10 days | 158.42 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 149.99 | 3 in 10 days | 157.22 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 151.06 | 4 in 10 days | 156.10 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 143.22 | 2 in 10 weeks | 164.65 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 145.69 | 3 in 10 weeks | 161.86 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 148.03 | 4 in 10 weeks | 159.30 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From USO's daily swings (about 2.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among USO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jul 14, 2008 |
939.84 +497.6% |
| 52-week closing high Sep 15, 2026 |
161.86 +2.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 161.86 +2.9% |
| Now | 157.28 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
153.56 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 145.69 -7.4% |
| 50-day average | 141.82 -9.8% |
| 200-day average | 118.80 -24.5% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 16, 2025 |
66.17 -57.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.