VOO
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | +0.1%679/1254 up | +0.4%733/1250 up | +1.5%803/1234 up | +4.2%855/1192 up |
| Big drop Oct 22 (-1.1% or worse) | 46 | — | 0.0%23/46 up | +0.5%26/45 up | +1.8%32/44 up | +6.3%37/44 up |
| Big gain (+1.0% or better) | 47 | — | +0.2%30/47 up | +0.5%27/47 up | +2.7%39/47 up | +5.1%38/44 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 21 | — | +0.6%13/21 up | +0.7%16/21 up | +2.6%16/20 up | +4.3%16/19 up |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | — | +0.3%6/8 up | +0.1%4/8 up | +3.2%5/8 up | +8.3%6/8 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | — | -0.7%2/7 up | +1.1%4/7 up | +4.3%4/7 up | +7.3%6/7 up |
| RSI oversold | 7 | — | +0.4%4/7 up | +3.1%6/7 up | +2.9%5/7 up | +11.7%6/7 up |
| RSI overbought | 21 | — | +0.1%12/21 up | +0.8%14/21 up | +1.5%16/21 up | +3.9%17/21 up |
| Volume spike | 10 | — | +0.1%5/10 up | +1.3%7/10 up | +2.8%7/10 up | +4.6%7/10 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Oct 19 | 79 | — | +0.1%46/79 up | +0.4%47/78 up | +1.8%53/78 up | +4.9%59/76 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is VOO's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Mention spike (Trendy)
Daily mentions at least 3x the prior week's average (20 or more); entry the next session.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 79 ≈75 indep. | +0.12% | 46 of 79 | +0.01% |
-3%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 78 ≈74 indep. | +0.38% | 47 of 78 | 0.00% |
-6%
+5%
|
|
| 1 month | 78 ≈49 indep. | +1.76% | 53 of 78 | +0.01% |
-10%
+11%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 76 ≈18 indep. | +4.89% | 59 of 76 | +0.02% |
-13%
+21%
|
Range of outcomes: all of VOO's mention spikes in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Mention spike (Trendy) by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 63 | +0.2%63 events vs +0.1% | +0.5%62 events vs +0.4% | +1.9%62 events vs +1.7% | +4.9%60 events vs +4.7% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 10 | +0.7%10 events vs 0.0% | +1.4%10 events vs +0.7% | +5.7%10 events vs +4.5% | +7.7%10 events vs +6.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 54 | +0.1%54 events vs +0.1% | +0.3%54 events vs +0.3% | +1.8%54 events vs +1.3% | +4.6%53 events vs +4.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 25 | +0.6%25 events vs +0.1% | +0.5%24 events vs +0.6% | +2.1%24 events vs +2.9% | +7.4%23 events vs +6.0% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 50 | +0.1%50 events vs 0.0% | +0.5%50 events vs +0.3% | +2.7%50 events vs +1.3% | +4.6%49 events vs +4.0% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 29 | +0.2%29 events vs +0.1% | 0.0%28 events vs +0.5% | +1.1%28 events vs +1.9% | +6.6%27 events vs +5.0% |
The same event split by where VOO stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest mention spikes
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Oct 19 @ $704.60 | 46 mentions vs 3.4/day the week before | +0.3% | … | … | … |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Aug 27 @ $706.93 | 26 mentions vs 6.4/day the week before | -0.2% | +0.3% | -0.5% | … |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $680.04 | 39 mentions vs 8.7/day the week before | +0.7% | +3.6% | +3.7% | … |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Jul 6 @ $688.85 | 28 mentions vs 9.3/day the week before | -0.5% | -0.3% | +2.7% | +2.7% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Jun 17 @ $677.69 | 48 mentions vs 12.9/day the week before | +1.0% | -0.8% | +0.4% | +3.2% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Jun 5 @ $674.30 | 33 mentions vs 8.3/day the week before | +0.2% | +0.6% | +1.4% | +4.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | May 18 @ $675.20 | 31 mentions vs 0.0/day the week before | -0.6% | +1.6% | +0.4% | +4.2% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | May 1 @ $658.90 | 38 mentions vs 8.3/day the week before | -0.4% | +2.3% | +5.4% | +5.4% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 23 @ $647.70 | 38 mentions vs 12.0/day the week before | +0.8% | +1.4% | +5.3% | +4.6% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Mar 19 @ $601.54 | 25 mentions vs 1.1/day the week before | -1.5% | -1.9% | +7.7% | +13.8% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mar 4 @ $624.77 | 46 mentions vs 11.3/day the week before | -0.5% | -1.3% | -4.0% | +10.4% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Feb 23 @ $622.24 | 33 mentions vs 8.7/day the week before | +0.7% | +0.6% | -4.0% | +9.6% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Feb 4 @ $625.49 | 45 mentions vs 6.4/day the week before | -1.2% | +0.9% | -2.0% | +7.3% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Jan 20 @ $617.80 | 32 mentions vs 1.3/day the week before | +1.1% | +2.7% | +1.0% | +4.2% |
| Dec 25, 2025 | Dec 26 @ $629.39 | 33 mentions vs 6.6/day the week before | -0.4% | -0.4% | +0.8% | -8.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.