VT
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | — | +0.1%664/1254 up | +0.3%726/1250 up | +1.4%765/1234 up | +3.8%872/1192 up |
| Big drop latest session (-1.0% or worse) | 52 | — | 0.0%25/51 up | +0.2%27/51 up | +2.8%34/49 up | +5.8%42/47 up |
| Big gain (+1.0% or better) | 45 | — | +0.2%29/45 up | +0.4%29/45 up | +2.8%37/45 up | +6.4%42/44 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 22 | — | -0.1%9/22 up | +0.2%15/22 up | +1.2%15/22 up | +3.2%18/21 up |
| 52-week low | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | — | +0.2%5/7 up | +0.3%5/7 up | +5.5%5/7 up | +10.3%7/7 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | — | +0.4%3/5 up | +1.7%3/5 up | -0.1%2/5 up | +11.4%5/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 7 | — | -0.1%3/7 up | -0.7%3/7 up | +1.6%5/7 up | +7.1%5/7 up |
| RSI overbought | 17 | — | -0.2%6/17 up | -0.5%7/17 up | +0.1%9/17 up | +3.6%13/17 up |
| Volume spike | 8 | — | -0.1%4/8 up | +0.3%7/8 up | +2.0%5/8 up | +2.3%4/8 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 7 | — | 0.0%3/7 up | +0.9%4/7 up | +1.8%4/7 up | +6.9%5/6 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is VT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session or today, from the live quote.
Big drop (-1.0% or worse)
A daily fall among the stock's own worst 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 51 | 0.00% | 25 of 51 | +0.07% |
-6%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 51 | +0.22% | 27 of 51 | +0.09% |
-3%
+4%
|
|
| 1 month | 49 ≈34 indep. | +2.82% | 34 of 49 | +0.36% |
-3%
+12%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 47 ≈14 indep. | +5.75% | 42 of 47 | -0.57% |
-8%
+18%
|
Range of outcomes: all of VT's big drops in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big drop by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 43 | 0.0%42 events vs +0.1% | +0.3%42 events vs +0.4% | +2.6%40 events vs +1.6% | +5.4%38 events vs +4.2% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 9 | -0.8%9 events vs 0.0% | -0.1%9 events vs +1.0% | +5.7%9 events vs +5.1% | +11.5%9 events vs +9.3% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 27 | +0.2%27 events vs +0.1% | +0.2%27 events vs +0.3% | +1.4%27 events vs +1.3% | +5.0%25 events vs +3.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 25 | 0.0%24 events vs 0.0% | +0.4%24 events vs +0.4% | +4.0%22 events vs +2.7% | +8.4%22 events vs +5.3% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 15 | +0.1%15 events vs +0.1% | +0.3%15 events vs +0.3% | +2.6%15 events vs +1.2% | +5.5%14 events vs +3.7% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 37 | 0.0%36 events vs 0.0% | -0.2%36 events vs +0.4% | +2.9%34 events vs +2.0% | +5.8%33 events vs +4.2% |
The same event split by where VT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest big drops
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Oct 30 @ $155.33 | -1.7% on the day (line -1.0%) | … | … | … | … |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Oct 22 @ $156.52 | -1.3% on the day (line -1.0%) | -0.4% | +0.9% | … | … |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 @ $157.67 | -1.3% on the day (line -1.0%) | +0.4% | +0.6% | … | … |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 23 @ $159.33 | -1.2% on the day (line -1.0%) | -0.2% | -0.9% | -1.8% | … |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Aug 18 @ $159.65 | -1.1% on the day (line -1.0%) | +0.4% | +0.6% | -0.5% | … |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Jul 23 @ $153.91 | -1.1% on the day (line -1.0%) | -0.1% | +0.7% | +4.2% | +3.0% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 13 @ $155.41 | -1.1% on the day (line -1.0%) | +0.6% | -1.0% | +3.2% | +2.8% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 17 @ $155.45 | -1.0% on the day (line -1.0%) | +1.2% | -0.6% | -1.0% | +2.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Jun 5 @ $152.73 | -3.1% on the day (line -1.0%) | +0.5% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +5.6% |
| May 15, 2026 | May 15 @ $152.58 | -1.6% on the day (line -1.0%) | +0.1% | +1.3% | +2.9% | +5.8% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Apr 21 @ $147.84 | -1.1% on the day (line -1.0%) | +0.9% | +0.5% | +3.9% | +5.3% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Mar 20 @ $135.48 | -2.1% on the day (line -1.0%) | +1.7% | -1.2% | +9.1% | +16.0% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Mar 12 @ $139.36 | -1.7% on the day (line -0.9%) | -0.7% | -0.7% | +4.4% | +11.0% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Mar 3 @ $142.82 | -2.0% on the day (line -0.9%) | +0.8% | -0.6% | -2.8% | +10.9% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Feb 5 @ $142.15 | -1.2% on the day (line -0.9%) | +2.2% | +1.8% | -0.1% | +7.5% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.