WM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- WM +2.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, volume spike (3.8× average volume on pace today so far): After its 4 volume spikes in the past 5 years, WM was higher a day later 0 times out of 4; half the outcomes fell between -1.8% and -0.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 88% positive over the week · today's pace is 1.5× its recent daily average.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 3 negative); latest: Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight, lowered target $230 → $220.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 3.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices WM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
217.88 +1.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
220.55 +2.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 221.74 · prior close 215.75 | |
| Bargain buy side |
213.64 -1.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
211.05 -2.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 212.96 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 218.58 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 213.64 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 217.88 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 214.27 | 4 in 10 days | 217.24 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 209.55 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 222.13 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 211.05 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 220.55 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 212.47 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 219.09 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From WM's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | +2.2% | -5.1% | -2.9% | — |
| Aug 6, 2026 | +2.1% | -2.1% | -4.4% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +1.4% | +1.0% | -4.2% | -11.4% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.8% | +1.3% | -1.7% | -12.0% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +2.6% | +1.8% | +8.4% | -4.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +2.9% | +3.3% | +5.5% | +0.9% |
| May 12, 2026 | +1.7% | +2.2% | +1.0% | +4.4% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | +4.0% | -0.1% | -6.4% | +3.0% |
Big drop and big gain: among WM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 277.00 +24.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 253.52 +14.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Mar 9, 2026 |
243.40 +9.8% |
| 200-day average | 222.84 +0.5% |
| Now | 221.74 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 220.55 -0.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 220.00 -0.8% |
| 50-day average | 215.77 -2.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
215.75 -2.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 211.05 -4.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 3, 2025 |
193.54 -12.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 38 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.