WRD
Moving with the market
- WRD +0.36% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 9): After its 12 big gains in the past 5 years, WRD was higher a day later 8 times out of 12; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +3.2%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 493 | — | -0.6%220/492 up | -1.7%214/488 up | -2.6%216/472 up | -10.9%123/430 up |
| Big drop Oct 8 (-5.8% or worse) | 10 | — | +1.4%6/10 up | +0.3%5/9 up | -0.5%4/9 up | -16.4%1/6 up |
| Big gain Oct 9 (+5.0% or better) | 12 | — | +0.9%8/12 up | -3.1%5/11 up | -4.6%4/11 up | -15.9%0/8 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | 3 | -0.8%1/3 up | +4.0%2/3 up | +2.7%2/3 up | +0.5%2/3 up | -19.6%0/2 up |
| 52-week high | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week low | 4 | — | +3.7%4/4 up | +5.0%3/4 up | +12.2%2/3 up | +7.8%1/2 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 2 | — | -0.4%1/2 up | -4.6%1/2 up | -28.6%0/2 up | -21.9%0/2 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 2 | — | +3.4%2/2 up | -0.2%1/2 up | -17.5%0/2 up | -5.9%0/2 up |
| RSI oversold Oct 8 | 7 | — | +1.5%5/7 up | +2.1%4/6 up | +13.4%4/6 up | +7.6%5/6 up |
| RSI overbought | 2 | — | +14.3%2/2 up | -17.6%0/2 up | -28.4%0/2 up | -49.0%0/2 up |
| Volume spike | 9 | — | +0.3%5/9 up | -0.9%4/9 up | -4.8%4/8 up | -8.8%2/7 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is WRD's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 492 | -0.57% | 220 of 492 | -0.66% |
-24%
+83%
|
|
| 1 week | 488 ≈98 indep. | -1.74% | 214 of 488 | -2.25% |
-45%
+153%
|
|
| 1 month | 472 ≈23 indep. | -2.59% | 216 of 472 | -5.65% |
-58%
+220%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 430 ≈7 indep. | -10.92% | 123 of 430 | -14.71% |
-79%
+115%
|
Range of outcomes: all of WRD's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 9 | -2.3%9 events vs -2.3% | -10.6%9 events vs -10.6% | -25.7%9 events vs -25.7% | -21.4%9 events vs -21.4% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 285 | -0.5%284 events vs -0.5% | -1.4%280 events vs -1.4% | -2.5%264 events vs -2.5% | -14.8%222 events vs -14.8% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 164 | -0.6%164 events vs -0.6% | -3.0%164 events vs -3.0% | -7.8%163 events vs -7.8% | -21.1%147 events vs -21.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 280 | -0.6%279 events vs -0.6% | +0.9%275 events vs +0.9% | +1.6%260 events vs +1.6% | -7.1%234 events vs -7.1% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 187 | -0.7%187 events vs -0.7% | -1.9%187 events vs -1.9% | -2.5%184 events vs -2.5% | -21.2%160 events vs -21.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 287 | -0.6%286 events vs -0.6% | -2.0%282 events vs -2.0% | -3.3%269 events vs -3.3% | -6.9%251 events vs -6.9% |
The same event split by where WRD stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.