XLF
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- XLF +1.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices XLF only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
54.91 +0.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
55.41 +1.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 55.17 · prior close 54.52 | |
| Bargain buy side |
54.13 -0.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
53.65 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 54.00 | 2 in 10 days | 55.04 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 54.13 | 3 in 10 days | 54.91 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 54.25 | 4 in 10 days | 54.79 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 53.37 | 2 in 10 weeks | 55.70 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 53.65 | 3 in 10 weeks | 55.41 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 53.91 | 4 in 10 weeks | 55.14 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From XLF's daily swings (about 0.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among XLF's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 3, 2026 |
58.35 +5.8% |
| 50-day average | 56.20 +1.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 55.41 +0.4% |
| Now | 55.17 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
54.52 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 53.65 -2.8% |
| 200-day average | 53.33 -3.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
47.48 -14.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.