XLP
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices XLP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
90.48 +1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% |
91.81 +2.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 89.42 | |
| Bargain buy side |
88.37 -1.2% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
87.09 -2.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 88.03 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 90.83 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 88.37 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 90.48 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 88.69 | 4 in 10 days | 90.16 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 86.35 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 92.60 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 87.09 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 91.81 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 87.79 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 91.08 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From XLP's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | +3.3% | -2.0% | — | — |
| Oct 8, 2026 | +2.1% | +3.9% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +1.2% | -2.3% | +0.4% | — |
| Aug 24, 2026 | +1.7% | -2.8% | -5.1% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +1.1% | +1.1% | +3.9% | +7.7% |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +2.8% | -3.0% | +0.3% | +1.0% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +2.0% | -1.0% | -0.2% | -4.9% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +1.9% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among XLP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 91.81 +2.7% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 22, 2026 |
89.99 +0.6% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
89.42 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 87.09 -2.6% |
| 50-day average | 84.39 -5.6% |
| 200-day average | 83.58 -6.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 6, 2025 |
73.58 -17.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 28 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.