XP
Moving with the market
- XP −0.62% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices XP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
32.33 +6.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
34.75 +14.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 30.30 · prior close 30.49 | |
| Bargain buy side |
28.76 -5.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
26.75 -12.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 28.22 | 2 in 10 days | 32.95 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 28.76 | 3 in 10 days | 32.33 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 29.27 | 4 in 10 days | 31.76 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 25.64 | 2 in 10 weeks | 36.26 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 26.75 | 3 in 10 weeks | 34.75 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 27.83 | 4 in 10 weeks | 33.40 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From XP's daily swings (about 6.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among XP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 2, 2021 |
45.03 +48.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.75 +14.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 12, 2026 |
32.60 +7.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
30.49 +0.6% |
| Now | 30.30 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 26.75 -11.7% |
| 50-day average | 20.76 -31.5% |
| 200-day average | 18.72 -38.2% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 10, 2026 |
14.94 -50.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.