Aftermath
After crossing below the 200-day average, over the next month
The close moves below its 200-day moving average. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.95% over the next month after crossing below the 200-day average (half of them between -1.37% and +3.02%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 month | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | CTSH Cognizant | -3.9% on the day | -7.17% | Low | #472 of 496 | 29% | 7 |
| Oct 2 | PTC PTC Inc. | -1.7% on the day | +0.28% | Low | #288 of 496 | 57% | 7 |
| Oct 2 | SW Smurfit Westrock | -1.2% on the day | +8.41% | Medium | #67 of 496 | 71% | 14 |
| Oct 1 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | -2.8% on the day | -5.59% | Low | #355 of 496 | 17% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | KVUE Kenvue | -2.5% on the day | -5.22% | Low | #441 of 496 | 29% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | VTR Ventas | -1.5% on the day | -1.70% | Medium | #376 of 496 | 50% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | ALL Allstate | -1.6% on the day | +5.08% | Medium | #24 of 496 | 90% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | BAC Bank of America | -1.0% on the day | -4.68% | Low | #398 of 496 | 29% | 7 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | -2.1% on the day | +0.19% | Medium | #332 of 496 | 55% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | GM General Motors | -4.3% on the day | +0.19% | Medium | #306 of 496 | 50% | 12 |
| Sep 30 | GNRC Generac | -2.5% on the day | +1.92% | Medium | #200 of 496 | 62% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | KHC Kraft Heinz | -3.1% on the day | +2.27% | Medium | #179 of 496 | 58% | 12 |
| Sep 30 | LQDA | -57.2% on the day | +24.99% | Medium | #157 of 496 | 70% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | MCHP Microchip Technology | -1.3% on the day | +6.41% | Medium | #51 of 496 | 64% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | MDLZ Mondelez International | -1.7% on the day | -1.97% | Medium | #414 of 496 | 38% | 13 |
| Sep 30 | MS Morgan Stanley | -2.4% on the day | -0.09% | Medium | #286 of 496 | 44% | 9 |
| Sep 30 | NSC Norfolk Southern | -1.3% on the day | +2.64% | Medium | #184 of 496 | 60% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -1.4% on the day | -1.84% | Medium | #422 of 496 | 44% | 9 |
| Sep 29 | CFG Citizens Financial Group | -1.4% on the day | -8.53% | Low | #373 of 496 | 0% | 4 |
| Sep 29 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | -1.2% on the day | +6.42% | Low | #199 of 496 | 67% | 6 |
| Sep 29 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | -0.9% on the day | +3.74% | Medium | #124 of 496 | 56% | 9 |
| Sep 29 | MDT Medtronic | -2.7% on the day | -0.68% | Medium | #399 of 496 | 45% | 11 |
| Sep 29 | SLB Schlumberger | -3.1% on the day | -2.68% | Medium | #457 of 496 | 25% | 8 |
| Sep 29 | T AT&T | -1.7% on the day | +1.46% | Medium | #208 of 496 | 50% | 8 |
| Sep 29 | TEL TE Connectivity | -1.0% on the day | -0.51% | Medium | #368 of 496 | 33% | 12 |
| Sep 28 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -2.5% on the day | -0.68% | Medium | #305 of 496 | 44% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | AWK American Water Works | -1.5% on the day | +2.34% | Medium | #122 of 496 | 60% | 15 |
| Sep 28 | CDW CDW Corporation | -3.8% on the day | +1.96% | Medium | #166 of 496 | 60% | 10 |
| Sep 28 | CTVA Corteva | -1.0% on the day | +3.56% | Medium | #105 of 496 | 80% | 10 |
| Sep 28 | DLR Digital Realty | -0.8% on the day | +0.84% | Low | #254 of 496 | 50% | 6 |
| Sep 28 | MNST Monster Beverage | -2.9% on the day | +1.44% | Medium | #154 of 496 | 67% | 9 |
Best after crossing below the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AIZ Assurant | +5.00%+4.3 to +5.3 | Low | +3.66% | 86% | -0.25% | -3% · +7% | 7 |
| 2 | AZO AutoZone | +6.23%+4.5 to +7.0 | Medium | +3.52% | 73% | +3.19% | -13% · +16% | 11 |
| 3 | PKG Packaging Corporation of … | +4.15%+2.2 to +5.3 | Medium | +4.21% | 89% | +1.79% | -3% · +10% | 9 |
| 4 | EW Edwards Lifesciences | +7.89%+3.7 to +9.5 | Medium | +5.78% | 82% | +4.88% | -5% · +19% | 11 |
| 5 | TRGP Targa Resources | +9.77%+2.2 to +10.9 | Medium | +8.36% | 88% | +7.65% | -2% · +14% | 8 |
| 6 | WAB Wabtec | +8.03%+3.6 to +9.6 | Medium | +5.05% | 89% | +4.21% | -11% · +10% | 9 |
| 7 | REG Regency Centers | +2.75%+1.0 to +3.0 | Medium | +2.27% | 72% | -0.22% | -4% · +10% | 18 |
| 8 | CSCO Cisco | +6.65%+4.6 to +8.6 | Low | +5.02% | 80% | -0.67% | -4% · +9% | 5 |
| 9 | BKR Baker Hughes | +5.32%+2.2 to +7.2 | Medium | +5.29% | 91% | +2.65% | -1% · +12% | 11 |
| 10 | ABBV AbbVie | +3.85%+2.4 to +5.4 | Medium | +3.76% | 73% | +3.04% | -7% · +18% | 15 |
| 11 | LYV Live Nation Entertainment | +6.83%+3.4 to +11.4 | Medium | +7.88% | 100% | +2.17% | +2% · +19% | 9 |
| 12 | EXPE Expedia Group | +7.25%+2.9 to +8.7 | Medium | +4.60% | 77% | +3.20% | -11% · +14% | 13 |
| 13 | WST West Pharmaceutical Services | +6.93%+3.8 to +10.4 | Medium | +6.27% | 82% | +4.05% | -10% · +18% | 11 |
| 14 | CBOE Cboe Global Markets | +4.11%+1.5 to +7.3 | Medium | +4.90% | 88% | +4.16% | -1% · +13% | 8 |
| 15 | AFL Aflac | +4.30%+3.8 to +6.1 | Low | +3.77% | 83% | -0.69% | -3% · +7% | 6 |
| 16 | ECL Ecolab | +2.96%+0.5 to +3.8 | Medium | +1.86% | 78% | -2.12% | -8% · +7% | 9 |
| 17 | EOG EOG Resources | +7.27%+3.2 to +8.7 | Medium | +5.34% | 65% | +4.95% | -9% · +24% | 17 |
| 18 | FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +7.99%+3.5 to +10.5 | Medium | +6.61% | 77% | +5.28% | -8% · +21% | 13 |
| 19 | TSCO Tractor Supply | +3.05%+0.4 to +4.8 | Medium | +2.83% | 82% | +2.68% | -4% · +8% | 11 |
| 20 | BNY BNY Mellon | +4.77%+3.2 to +7.2 | Medium | +4.25% | 75% | +1.07% | -10% · +14% | 8 |
| 21 | IT Gartner | +5.41%+0.1 to +6.5 | Medium | +5.68% | 88% | +2.61% | -12% · +29% | 8 |
| 22 | EME Emcor | +1.90%-0.4 to +2.1 | Low | +1.59% | 75% | +4.75% | 0% · +3% | 4 |
| 23 | PEP PepsiCo | +2.60%+1.2 to +3.9 | Medium | +2.90% | 69% | +2.07% | -9% · +21% | 13 |
| 24 | ALL Allstate | +5.08%+2.5 to +5.8 | Medium | +4.21% | 90% | +2.67% | -12% · +13% | 10 |
| 25 | TGT Target Corporation | +4.27%+3.0 to +8.0 | Medium | +3.26% | 78% | +2.16% | -9% · +10% | 9 |
Worst after crossing below the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -5.97%-7.6 to -5.2 | Medium | -5.23% | 10% | -5.19% | -12% · +7% | 10 |
| 2 | WEC WEC Energy Group | -2.91%-3.5 to -1.2 | Medium | -1.33% | 23% | -4.38% | -10% · +12% | 13 |
| 3 | LRCX Lam Research | -5.82%-6.5 to -2.2 | Low | -4.83% | 0% | -3.17% | -7% · -2% | 3 |
| 4 | CNP CenterPoint Energy | -1.06%-1.8 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.91% | 31% | -2.08% | -5% · +7% | 13 |
| 5 | PYPL PayPal | -5.34%-7.9 to -2.5 | Medium | -3.44% | 25% | -4.76% | -15% · +13% | 8 |
| 6 | HD Home Depot (The) | -5.38%-8.8 to -3.1 | Medium | -4.79% | 11% | -2.30% | -11% · +7% | 9 |
| 7 | GEN Gen Digital | -8.19%-9.0 to -5.5 | Medium | -3.34% | 22% | -5.42% | -12% · +25% | 9 |
| 8 | HRL Hormel Foods | -1.66%-2.2 to -1.2 | Medium | -1.98% | 27% | -3.04% | -10% · +6% | 15 |
| 9 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | -2.36%-4.5 to -2.2 | Medium | -1.70% | 31% | -2.41% | -12% · +13% | 13 |
| 10 | SPGI S&P Global | -3.77%-6.1 to -2.2 | Medium | -2.65% | 30% | -2.19% | -10% · +5% | 10 |
| 11 | TLT meme | -1.33%-2.1 to +1.2 | Medium | -0.68% | 35% | -2.79% | -6% · +5% | 17 |
| 12 | VRSK Verisk Analytics | -3.37%-4.5 to -2.3 | Low | -2.28% | 14% | -2.85% | -10% · +11% | 7 |
| 13 | AMCR Amcor | -1.97%-3.8 to -0.2 | Medium | -0.21% | 31% | -2.35% | -10% · +21% | 13 |
| 14 | AEE Ameren | -2.58%-6.1 to -1.4 | Medium | -3.12% | 20% | -6.42% | -13% · +2% | 10 |
| 15 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | -1.64%-3.4 to -0.1 | Medium | -0.19% | 25% | -3.03% | -14% · +19% | 12 |
| 16 | SBAC SBA Communications | -5.66%-10.5 to -4.1 | Medium | -5.97% | 20% | -6.26% | -17% · +4% | 10 |
| 17 | WY Weyerhaeuser | -2.03%-3.2 to +0.2 | Medium | -2.83% | 38% | -2.94% | -17% · +10% | 16 |
| 18 | LHX L3Harris | -4.34%-9.0 to -4.1 | Low | -4.84% | 0% | -4.85% | -9% · -2% | 4 |
| 19 | AEP American Electric Power | -1.72%-2.8 to +0.1 | Low | -1.06% | 29% | -1.85% | -6% · +7% | 7 |
| 20 | MOS Mosaic Company (The) | -6.92%-10.8 to -3.9 | Medium | -4.19% | 25% | -6.42% | -15% · +18% | 8 |
| 21 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -4.34%-6.6 to -0.8 | Medium | -2.53% | 33% | -4.12% | -7% · +4% | 12 |
| 22 | CCI Crown Castle | -1.57%-2.7 to -0.6 | Medium | -0.97% | 27% | -4.60% | -9% · +7% | 11 |
| 23 | CI Cigna | -2.30%-3.1 to +0.7 | Medium | -1.16% | 38% | -2.84% | -14% · +14% | 13 |
| 24 | ES Eversource Energy | -0.80%-1.3 to +0.2 | Medium | -0.77% | 40% | -2.09% | -12% · +5% | 10 |
| 25 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -3.14%-6.7 to -0.2 | Medium | -3.48% | 22% | -4.35% | -20% · +10% | 9 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.