TLT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TLT −0.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi oversold (Sep 28): After its 12 oversold readings in the past 5 years, TLT typically gained 0.4% over the next day (median) and was higher 58% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -0.2% and +1.2%. An ordinary day: -0.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after oversold readings, that ranks #66 of 496.
- 9 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 69% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#484 H | -0.2%#500 H | -0.7%#496 H | -1.6%#474 M |
| Big drop (-0.9% or worse) | 49 | +0.1%#331 H | -0.2%#479 H | +0.8%#475 H | -0.4%#491 M |
| Big gain (+0.9% or better) | 42 | -0.1%#441 H | +0.3%#294 H | +0.1%#494 H | -0.9%#496 M |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 4 | +0.2%#169 L | -1.0%#399 L | -2.2%#478 L | -4.8%#455 L |
| 52-week low | 5 | +0.3%#10 L | +1.0%#81 L | -1.6%#243 L | +5.4%#146 L |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 19 | -0.1%#439 M | -0.2%#490 M | -2.1%#498 M | -2.6%#494 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 17 | 0.0%#291 M | -0.1%#457 M | -1.3%#487 M | -1.2%#487 M |
| RSI oversold Sep 28 | 12 | +0.4%#66 M | +0.8%#223 M | +0.3%#445 M | +0.2%#492 L |
| RSI overbought | 6 | -0.7%#491 L | -1.4%#466 L | -3.4%#500 L | -4.4%#502 L |
| Reddit spike | 21 | 0.0%#83 H | +0.2%#62 H | +0.5%#77 M | +1.6%#72 M |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is TLT's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed below 200-day avg
The close moves below its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 17 | +0.05% (-0.2 to +0.1) | Medium | #291 of 497 | 53% | +0.11% |
-2%
+2%
|
|
| 1 week | 17 | -0.07% (-0.8 to +0.3) | Medium | #457 of 497 | 47% | -0.20% |
-3%
+3%
|
|
| 1 month | 17 | -1.33% (-2.1 to +1.2) | Medium | #487 of 496 | 35% | -2.79% |
-6%
+5%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 17 ≈10 indep. | -1.18% (-2.4 to +0.3) | Medium | #487 of 493 | 35% | -8.05% |
-14%
+10%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TLT's crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed below 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 7 | -0.2%L vs -0.1% | -0.9%L vs -0.4% | -1.8%L vs -1.3% | -2.4%L vs -2.3% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 10 | +0.1%M vs +0.1% | +0.2%M vs -0.2% | -1.0%M vs -0.7% | -0.3%L vs -0.7% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 5 | +0.1%L vs -0.1% | -0.3%L vs -0.1% | +1.6%L vs -0.7% | -2.0%L vs -2.2% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 12 | 0.0%M vs 0.0% | 0.0%M vs -0.2% | -1.6%M vs -0.8% | -1.1%M vs -0.9% |
The same event split by where TLT stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $84.76 | -0.8% on the day | +0.1% | +1.6% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $84.30 | -0.6% on the day | +0.9% | +0.3% | -2.7% | -0.9% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Mar 13 @ $84.22 | -0.5% on the day | +0.8% | -0.8% | +1.2% | +0.3% |
| Aug 12, 2025 | Aug 12 @ $82.49 | -0.5% on the day | +0.8% | -0.3% | +4.3% | +4.1% |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Apr 7 @ $84.17 | -3.0% on the day | -1.9% | -2.8% | -2.0% | -2.4% |
| Mar 5, 2025 | Mar 5 @ $84.47 | -0.8% on the day | -0.3% | -0.9% | +1.6% | -3.7% |
| Dec 12, 2024 | Dec 12 @ $83.93 | -1.2% on the day | -1.0% | -3.2% | -4.4% | +0.7% |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Oct 21 @ $84.41 | -1.8% on the day | +0.1% | -0.4% | -1.3% | -4.8% |
| Jul 1, 2024 | Jul 1 @ $81.49 | -1.7% on the day | +0.8% | +2.7% | +5.5% | +9.8% |
| May 28, 2024 | May 28 @ $81.10 | -1.4% on the day | -1.2% | +3.2% | +4.2% | +9.9% |
| Mar 14, 2024 | Mar 14 @ $83.14 | -1.5% on the day | 0.0% | +0.1% | -4.1% | +2.0% |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Jan 16 @ $84.26 | -1.8% on the day | -0.2% | -1.0% | -1.8% | -6.0% |
| Jul 14, 2023 | Jul 14 @ $88.34 | -0.6% on the day | 0.0% | +0.4% | -5.8% | -14.3% |
| Jun 2, 2023 | Jun 2 @ $88.71 | -1.1% on the day | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -6.2% |
| Apr 17, 2023 | Apr 17 @ $89.84 | -1.2% on the day | +0.4% | +1.5% | -0.7% | -1.2% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.