Aftermath
After crossing below the 200-day average, over the next quarter
The close moves below its 200-day moving average. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +3.33% over the next quarter after crossing below the 200-day average (half of them between -0.81% and +8.34%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest crosses below the 200-day average, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 quarter | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | CTSH Cognizant | -3.9% on the day | +0.08% | Low | #295 of 493 | 50% | 6 |
| Oct 2 | PTC PTC Inc. | -1.7% on the day | +7.05% | Low | #130 of 493 | 67% | 6 |
| Oct 2 | SW Smurfit Westrock | -1.2% on the day | +9.32% | Medium | #26 of 493 | 79% | 14 |
| Oct 1 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | -2.8% on the day | -20.20% | Low | #491 of 493 | 0% | 6 |
| Oct 1 | KVUE Kenvue | -2.5% on the day | -3.42% | Low | #367 of 493 | 43% | 7 |
| Oct 1 | VTR Ventas | -1.5% on the day | -1.85% | Low | #386 of 493 | 38% | 8 |
| Sep 30 | ALL Allstate | -1.6% on the day | +6.79% | Medium | #97 of 493 | 70% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | BAC Bank of America | -1.0% on the day | -4.93% | Low | #379 of 493 | 43% | 7 |
| Sep 30 | CB Chubb Limited | -2.1% on the day | +5.43% | Medium | #88 of 493 | 82% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | GM General Motors | -4.3% on the day | -0.52% | Low | #315 of 493 | 36% | 11 |
| Sep 30 | GNRC Generac | -2.5% on the day | +13.77% | Low | #157 of 493 | 71% | 7 |
| Sep 30 | KHC Kraft Heinz | -3.1% on the day | +0.40% | Medium | #368 of 493 | 50% | 12 |
| Sep 30 | LQDA | -57.2% on the day | +6.29% | Low | #198 of 493 | 80% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | MCHP Microchip Technology | -1.3% on the day | +15.76% | Medium | #54 of 493 | 80% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | MDLZ Mondelez International | -1.7% on the day | -0.09% | Medium | #434 of 493 | 46% | 13 |
| Sep 30 | MS Morgan Stanley | -2.4% on the day | +4.47% | Low | #209 of 493 | 89% | 9 |
| Sep 30 | NSC Norfolk Southern | -1.3% on the day | +2.10% | Medium | #282 of 493 | 50% | 10 |
| Sep 30 | SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | -1.4% on the day | +4.05% | Medium | #226 of 493 | 56% | 9 |
| Sep 29 | CFG Citizens Financial Group | -1.4% on the day | +7.42% | Low | #190 of 493 | 75% | 4 |
| Sep 29 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | -1.2% on the day | -0.29% | Low | #259 of 493 | 50% | 6 |
| Sep 29 | FOXA Fox Corporation (Class … | -0.9% on the day | +4.17% | Low | #221 of 493 | 75% | 8 |
| Sep 29 | MDT Medtronic | -2.7% on the day | +4.29% | Medium | #204 of 493 | 73% | 11 |
| Sep 29 | SLB Schlumberger | -3.1% on the day | +5.59% | Low | #206 of 493 | 62% | 8 |
| Sep 29 | T AT&T | -1.7% on the day | -7.41% | Low | #452 of 493 | 29% | 7 |
| Sep 29 | TEL TE Connectivity | -1.0% on the day | +5.51% | Medium | #91 of 493 | 73% | 11 |
| Sep 28 | ARE Alexandria Real Estate … | -2.5% on the day | -7.71% | Low | #404 of 493 | 25% | 8 |
| Sep 28 | AWK American Water Works | -1.5% on the day | -2.22% | Medium | #479 of 493 | 29% | 14 |
| Sep 28 | CDW CDW Corporation | -3.8% on the day | +0.15% | Low | #364 of 493 | 56% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | CTVA Corteva | -1.0% on the day | +9.34% | Medium | #109 of 493 | 56% | 9 |
| Sep 28 | DLR Digital Realty | -0.8% on the day | +6.17% | Low | #164 of 493 | 60% | 5 |
| Sep 28 | MNST Monster Beverage | -2.9% on the day | +1.58% | Low | #397 of 493 | 67% | 9 |
Best after crossing below the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PWR Quanta Services | +19.16%+17.1 to +20.2 | Low | +18.81% | 100% | +8.48% | +17% · +20% | 3 |
| 2 | TT Trane Technologies | +20.07%+15.5 to +22.1 | Low | +20.63% | 100% | +14.73% | +15% · +36% | 7 |
| 3 | CASY Casey's | +11.30%+10.4 to +15.2 | Low | +11.32% | 100% | +5.07% | +7% · +15% | 4 |
| 4 | SPG Simon Property Group | +10.41%+9.8 to +10.9 | Low | +12.36% | 100% | +5.43% | +1% · +31% | 10 |
| 5 | FLEX Flex Ltd. | +29.34%+23.5 to +31.5 | Low | +31.47% | 100% | +22.81% | +24% · +44% | 4 |
| 6 | TSM meme | +9.29%+9.2 to +12.9 | Low | +10.48% | 100% | +6.64% | +9% · +13% | 3 |
| 7 | WAB Wabtec | +14.74%+11.3 to +17.6 | Low | +14.68% | 100% | +10.95% | +4% · +23% | 9 |
| 8 | APH Amphenol | +24.70%+18.6 to +31.2 | Low | +25.33% | 100% | +14.43% | +4% · +49% | 8 |
| 9 | HIG Hartford (The) | +8.44%+6.8 to +10.2 | Medium | +8.25% | 86% | +5.60% | -5% · +23% | 14 |
| 10 | EXPE Expedia Group | +19.00%+17.0 to +23.3 | Medium | +19.75% | 85% | +10.24% | -5% · +46% | 13 |
| 11 | GE GE Aerospace | +23.69%+22.2 to +23.8 | Low | +29.49% | 100% | +21.84% | +22% · +48% | 4 |
| 12 | IT Gartner | +17.87%+16.3 to +22.0 | Low | +18.70% | 86% | +10.04% | -9% · +39% | 7 |
| 13 | ABBV AbbVie | +11.95%+6.9 to +13.6 | Medium | +11.24% | 93% | +6.26% | -5% · +27% | 15 |
| 14 | HLT Hilton Worldwide | +9.43%+3.7 to +10.2 | Low | +7.78% | 100% | +1.79% | +4% · +10% | 3 |
| 15 | JPM JPMorgan Chase | +19.85%+19.6 to +27.5 | Low | +20.82% | 100% | +10.03% | +6% · +31% | 5 |
| 16 | CME CME Group | +11.04%+5.1 to +11.7 | Low | +10.54% | 100% | +3.40% | +5% · +20% | 7 |
| 17 | CBOE Cboe Global Markets | +8.87%+7.4 to +10.4 | Low | +10.46% | 100% | +6.37% | +2% · +19% | 7 |
| 18 | ROL Rollins, Inc. | +11.51%+8.8 to +14.7 | Low | +10.19% | 88% | +6.06% | -7% · +18% | 8 |
| 19 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +18.16%+11.1 to +20.5 | Medium | +29.39% | 92% | +8.41% | -10% · +161% | 12 |
| 20 | L Loews Corporation | +9.02%+3.6 to +12.5 | Low | +7.55% | 86% | -1.55% | -1% · +14% | 7 |
| 21 | HBAN Huntington Bancshares | +9.83%+5.1 to +12.0 | Low | +6.28% | 89% | +4.05% | -17% · +16% | 9 |
| 22 | ECL Ecolab | +8.66%+3.1 to +9.8 | Low | +8.46% | 89% | +8.03% | -1% · +19% | 9 |
| 23 | SOLV Solventum | +15.08%+3.3 to +16.7 | Low | +11.85% | 83% | +3.69% | -2% · +21% | 6 |
| 24 | BLK BlackRock | +6.36%+1.8 to +7.0 | Medium | +6.63% | 90% | +0.97% | -1% · +18% | 10 |
| 25 | MAR Marriott International | +11.70%+4.5 to +15.0 | Low | +11.55% | 90% | +6.22% | 0% · +25% | 10 |
Worst after crossing below the 200-day average
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NKE Nike, Inc. | -12.79%-14.0 to -11.3 | Low | -11.21% | 11% | -16.90% | -23% · +10% | 9 |
| 2 | LHX L3Harris | -5.85%-7.2 to -4.8 | Low | -5.08% | 0% | -8.00% | -7% · -1% | 4 |
| 3 | EL Estée Lauder Companies … | -20.20%-23.3 to -19.3 | Low | -16.36% | 0% | -26.70% | -24% · -1% | 6 |
| 4 | CL Colgate-Palmolive | -1.55%-3.1 to -0.3 | Medium | -1.50% | 25% | -6.99% | -13% · +13% | 12 |
| 5 | HSIC Henry Schein | -1.11%-3.0 to +0.2 | Medium | +0.48% | 35% | -5.74% | -16% · +24% | 17 |
| 6 | SJM J.M. Smucker Company … | -3.25%-4.0 to -0.2 | Medium | -1.55% | 33% | -8.37% | -24% · +24% | 18 |
| 7 | KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | -2.49%-3.3 to +0.9 | Medium | -3.44% | 40% | -6.54% | -21% · +7% | 15 |
| 8 | TLT meme | -1.18%-2.4 to +0.3 | Medium | -1.15% | 35% | -8.05% | -14% · +10% | 17 |
| 9 | HRL Hormel Foods | -4.11%-6.4 to -1.9 | Medium | -4.54% | 29% | -9.47% | -16% · +6% | 14 |
| 10 | NI NiSource | -1.46%-2.7 to +2.4 | Low | +0.28% | 29% | -7.21% | -4% · +10% | 7 |
| 11 | LVS Las Vegas Sands | -9.05%-11.8 to -7.0 | Low | -4.63% | 20% | -14.77% | -27% · +28% | 10 |
| 12 | FIS Fidelity National Information … | -10.45%-17.3 to -5.7 | Low | -8.10% | 20% | -10.48% | -17% · +5% | 5 |
| 13 | MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | -7.59%-9.1 to -0.9 | Medium | -5.19% | 25% | -14.03% | -12% · +5% | 8 |
| 14 | DHR Danaher Corporation | -4.91%-5.5 to +0.1 | Medium | -2.46% | 36% | -8.76% | -20% · +18% | 11 |
| 15 | CCI Crown Castle | -8.03%-12.8 to -3.8 | Medium | -6.34% | 27% | -14.62% | -24% · +11% | 11 |
| 16 | AWK American Water Works | -2.22%-5.4 to -1.4 | Medium | -1.66% | 29% | -6.27% | -19% · +15% | 14 |
| 17 | ZBH Zimmer Biomet | -6.98%-9.2 to -0.5 | Medium | -4.11% | 23% | -7.74% | -16% · +12% | 13 |
| 18 | WEN meme | -6.46%-10.4 to -1.9 | Medium | -1.96% | 27% | -5.01% | -11% · +17% | 11 |
| 19 | LNT Alliant Energy | -0.95%-3.5 to +0.5 | Low | -0.46% | 43% | -4.06% | -7% · +7% | 7 |
| 20 | SRE Sempra | +0.08%-2.1 to +0.2 | Medium | +0.44% | 54% | -3.61% | -12% · +13% | 13 |
| 21 | VLTO Veralto | -5.50%-9.2 to -2.8 | Low | -5.79% | 17% | -3.83% | -15% · +1% | 6 |
| 22 | EXC Exelon | -0.96%-2.4 to +1.6 | Medium | +1.22% | 41% | -3.39% | -14% · +22% | 17 |
| 23 | TSCO Tractor Supply | -5.32%-6.7 to +0.8 | Medium | -3.02% | 36% | -5.68% | -31% · +20% | 11 |
| 24 | ADM Archer Daniels Midland | -8.30%-13.0 to -7.6 | Low | -6.99% | 14% | -12.34% | -19% · +16% | 7 |
| 25 | BF-B Brown–Forman | -6.74%-9.6 to -2.7 | Medium | -8.06% | 11% | -8.22% | -22% · +6% | 9 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.