After an unplanned insider sale, over the next day
An insider's sale outside a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan; entry the session after its SEC filing. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.11% over the next day after an unplanned insider sale (half of them between -0.52% and +0.84%), against +0.06% on any day.
Latest unplanned insider sales, last few sessions
Best after an unplanned insider sale
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UPST meme | +2.71%+0.7 to +4.3 | Low | +3.08% | 100% | +2.06% | +1% · +6% | 12 |
| 2 | CRDO meme | +3.20%+1.5 to +4.2 | Medium | +1.63% | 71% | +0.66% | -8% · +8% | 17 |
| 3 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +0.86%-0.3 to +1.8 | Medium | +0.77% | 70% | +0.87% | -9% · +8% | 23 |
| 4 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +1.81%-0.2 to +2.9 | Low | +1.81% | 75% | +1.82% | 0% · +4% | 4 |
| 5 | BA Boeing | +0.42%-0.7 to +0.7 | Low | +0.21% | 75% | +0.21% | -1% · +1% | 4 |
| 6 | WMT Walmart | +0.40%-0.4 to +0.8 | Medium | +0.38% | 64% | +0.57% | -1% · +2% | 11 |
| 7 | AMAT Applied Materials | +1.43%-0.7 to +3.7 | Medium | +0.64% | 64% | +1.25% | -7% · +5% | 14 |
| 8 | APLD meme | +5.46%-1.4 to +9.3 | Low | +4.15% | 64% | +5.99% | -1% · +9% | 11 |
| 9 | GME meme | +0.61%-1.3 to +1.5 | Low | +0.25% | 71% | +0.62% | -2% · +2% | 7 |
| 10 | RKLB meme | +3.93%-4.6 to +4.4 | Medium | +1.05% | 67% | +3.73% | -15% · +11% | 12 |
| 11 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +1.33%-1.0 to +2.4 | Low | +1.81% | 67% | +0.97% | -1% · +6% | 6 |
| 12 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | +1.30%-3.0 to +1.4 | Low | -0.33% | 62% | +0.67% | -3% · +1% | 13 |
| 13 | NVDA Nvidia | +0.41%-0.4 to +0.8 | Medium | +0.09% | 64% | +0.87% | -4% · +4% | 11 |
| 14 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +0.38%-0.5 to +1.6 | Medium | +0.56% | 64% | +0.40% | -2% · +2% | 11 |
| 15 | STX Seagate Technology | +2.56%-4.2 to +3.4 | Medium | +0.49% | 55% | +2.14% | -9% · +10% | 20 |
| 16 | WULF meme | +4.32%-2.9 to +7.2 | Low | +3.80% | 75% | +3.96% | -3% · +10% | 4 |
| 17 | WDC Western Digital | +2.22%+0.1 to +6.9 | Medium | +1.99% | 80% | +2.03% | -8% · +7% | 10 |
| 18 | ARM meme | +4.80%-8.5 to +4.8 | Low | +1.64% | 80% | +4.14% | -8% · +5% | 5 |
| 19 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | +0.80%0.0 to +1.9 | Low | +1.91% | 60% | +0.74% | -1% · +8% | 5 |
| 20 | BE Bloom Energy | +1.58%-1.2 to +5.2 | Medium | +0.40% | 63% | +1.35% | -14% · +9% | 19 |
| 21 | NBIS meme | +3.42%-1.1 to +10.9 | Low | +2.49% | 70% | +2.95% | -12% · +11% | 10 |
| 22 | APP AppLovin | +1.28%-6.5 to +5.5 | Low | +0.36% | 67% | +1.01% | -9% · +5% | 12 |
| 23 | AVGO Broadcom | +0.27%-2.9 to +0.5 | Medium | -0.63% | 53% | -0.95% | -3% · +2% | 19 |
| 24 | BB meme | +0.18%-0.8 to +8.2 | Low | +1.91% | 57% | +0.49% | -2% · +8% | 14 |
| 25 | LITE Lumentum | -0.20%-2.8 to +1.6 | Low | -2.10% | 50% | -0.22% | -13% · +2% | 6 |
Worst after an unplanned insider sale
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HD Home Depot (The) | -1.13%-1.2 to -0.4 | Low | -0.77% | 25% | -0.93% | -2% · 0% | 8 |
| 2 | TTD meme | -1.42%-2.6 to -1.4 | Low | -1.78% | 0% | -1.28% | -3% · -1% | 3 |
| 3 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive | -0.45%-0.7 to +0.1 | Low | -0.40% | 29% | +0.44% | -2% · +1% | 7 |
| 4 | FICO Fair Isaac | -0.54%-1.0 to -0.2 | Low | -0.45% | 25% | -1.08% | -1% · 0% | 4 |
| 5 | SNDK Sandisk | -1.94%-3.9 to -1.3 | Low | -2.03% | 0% | -1.82% | -4% · 0% | 4 |
| 6 | ORCL Oracle Corporation | -0.68%-1.6 to +0.3 | Low | -0.39% | 33% | -1.86% | -2% · +2% | 9 |
| 7 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | -0.61%-1.5 to 0.0 | Low | -0.44% | 25% | -0.70% | -1% · +1% | 4 |
| 8 | VST Vistra Corp. | -2.95%-3.0 to +2.1 | Low | -1.70% | 25% | -1.46% | -3% · +2% | 4 |
| 9 | META Meta Platforms | -0.04%-0.2 to +0.5 | Low | +0.35% | 40% | +0.96% | 0% · +2% | 5 |
| 10 | AEO meme | -3.43%-6.5 to -0.4 | Medium | -2.55% | 21% | -2.66% | -6% · +4% | 14 |
| 11 | LQDA meme | -0.72%-2.2 to +1.6 | Medium | -0.71% | 35% | -1.22% | -5% · +3% | 17 |
| 12 | MU Micron Technology | -1.34%-4.7 to +0.2 | Medium | -0.83% | 42% | -1.30% | -10% · +9% | 12 |
| 13 | CRWV meme | -0.39%-1.5 to +1.9 | High | +0.36% | 46% | +0.17% | -8% · +19% | 79 |
| 14 | ONDS meme | -5.59%-7.1 to +3.1 | Low | -2.63% | 38% | -5.35% | -7% · +8% | 8 |
| 15 | OKLO meme | -2.12%-6.3 to +2.2 | Medium | -0.84% | 46% | -2.44% | -10% · +16% | 24 |
| 16 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | -0.09%-0.1 to +0.7 | Low | -0.44% | 40% | -0.40% | -4% · +1% | 5 |
| 17 | NOW ServiceNow | -0.65%-4.3 to +0.7 | Low | -1.59% | 43% | -1.65% | -8% · +2% | 7 |
| 18 | MSFT Microsoft | +0.13%-0.2 to +0.3 | Medium | -0.03% | 75% | -0.18% | -2% · +1% | 8 |
| 19 | NFLX Netflix | -0.02%-0.7 to +0.6 | Low | -0.30% | 43% | +0.28% | -3% · +1% | 7 |
| 20 | INTC Intel | -0.74%-0.8 to +4.5 | Low | +0.98% | 33% | +0.51% | -1% · +4% | 3 |
| 21 | COHR Coherent Corp. | -0.46%-3.5 to +0.5 | Medium | -0.24% | 40% | -0.44% | -8% · +8% | 10 |
| 22 | UBER Uber | +0.09%-0.9 to +0.3 | Low | -0.04% | 50% | -0.29% | -2% · +2% | 6 |
| 23 | COST Costco | +0.15%-0.6 to +0.6 | Medium | +0.22% | 50% | -0.15% | -1% · +2% | 12 |
| 24 | CVNA Carvana | -0.07%-2.9 to +4.4 | Low | +0.54% | 44% | -0.06% | -6% · +8% | 9 |
| 25 | LITE Lumentum | -0.20%-2.8 to +1.6 | Low | -2.10% | 50% | -0.22% | -13% · +2% | 6 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next day from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.