After an unplanned insider sale, over the next month
An insider's sale outside a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan; entry the session after its SEC filing. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +3.36% over the next month after an unplanned insider sale (half of them between -3.60% and +9.58%), against +0.86% on any day.
Latest unplanned insider sales, last few sessions
Best after an unplanned insider sale
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COHR Coherent Corp. | +24.42%+9.0 to +27.5 | Low | +19.04% | 100% | +19.82% | +2% · +27% | 8 |
| 2 | WULF meme | +18.53%+4.5 to +24.8 | Low | +18.13% | 100% | +15.71% | +5% · +31% | 4 |
| 3 | WDC Western Digital | +9.58%+7.9 to +18.2 | Low | +13.06% | 89% | +11.01% | -6% · +29% | 9 |
| 4 | META Meta Platforms | +11.69%-7.8 to +11.7 | Low | +8.21% | 80% | +8.67% | -8% · +22% | 5 |
| 5 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +7.11%-0.1 to +16.0 | Medium | +8.17% | 68% | +6.21% | -9% · +43% | 22 |
| 6 | AVGO Broadcom | +8.23%-4.2 to +10.4 | Low | +7.11% | 63% | +2.82% | -5% · +25% | 19 |
| 7 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +14.83%-8.3 to +20.0 | Low | +11.92% | 80% | +14.91% | -8% · +31% | 5 |
| 8 | UPST meme | +13.65%-10.9 to +15.5 | Low | +4.22% | 64% | +11.08% | -11% · +15% | 11 |
| 9 | MU Micron Technology | +12.24%+1.7 to +35.5 | Medium | +19.46% | 92% | +11.19% | -9% · +73% | 12 |
| 10 | LQDA meme | +7.75%+3.9 to +19.9 | Medium | +8.30% | 75% | +2.61% | -25% · +48% | 16 |
| 11 | CVNA Carvana | +12.46%+1.3 to +29.1 | Low | +17.50% | 89% | +11.92% | 0% · +41% | 9 |
| 12 | NVDA Nvidia | +3.67%+2.9 to +5.3 | Low | +5.42% | 89% | +2.81% | 0% · +17% | 9 |
| 13 | STX Seagate Technology | +6.09%+0.6 to +8.8 | Medium | +1.22% | 71% | +4.74% | -24% · +39% | 17 |
| 14 | ONDS meme | +34.28%-15.2 to +34.3 | Low | +14.72% | 71% | +33.54% | -33% · +34% | 7 |
| 15 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +4.00%-3.6 to +12.0 | Low | +5.24% | 73% | +2.70% | -4% · +21% | 11 |
| 16 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | +9.96%-21.5 to +15.4 | Low | -0.46% | 62% | +12.82% | -21% · +15% | 13 |
| 17 | SNDK Sandisk | +12.41%-9.9 to +29.6 | Low | +17.42% | 50% | +13.68% | -10% · +55% | 4 |
| 18 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | +10.79%-6.5 to +35.4 | Low | +12.80% | 60% | +10.29% | -14% · +38% | 5 |
| 19 | LITE Lumentum | +8.60%-5.4 to +38.1 | Low | +14.46% | 67% | +10.95% | -11% · +47% | 6 |
| 20 | GME meme | +4.98%-12.9 to +17.3 | Low | +4.40% | 71% | -4.86% | -14% · +17% | 7 |
| 21 | APP AppLovin | +5.24%-6.7 to +28.5 | Low | +8.49% | 75% | +2.34% | -29% · +28% | 12 |
| 22 | NBIS meme | +12.19%-24.8 to +62.1 | Low | +23.76% | 78% | +9.24% | -25% · +62% | 9 |
| 23 | RKLB meme | +6.60%-16.1 to +40.9 | Low | +16.41% | 58% | +5.84% | -30% · +82% | 12 |
| 24 | INTC Intel | +3.36%-10.7 to +8.4 | Low | +0.37% | 67% | -1.25% | -11% · +8% | 3 |
| 25 | APLD meme | -3.11%-21.3 to +96.3 | Low | +22.45% | 45% | -2.17% | -21% · +96% | 11 |
Worst after an unplanned insider sale
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FICO Fair Isaac | -9.49%-16.6 to -7.6 | Low | -7.89% | 25% | -9.90% | -17% · +4% | 4 |
| 2 | MSFT Microsoft | -4.19%-8.1 to -1.4 | Low | -4.57% | 12% | -5.78% | -10% · 0% | 8 |
| 3 | CRWV meme | -6.51%-7.2 to +0.8 | Medium | -0.85% | 40% | -7.84% | -42% · +58% | 78 |
| 4 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | -3.67%-12.0 to -2.9 | Low | -4.35% | 25% | -6.40% | -12% · +2% | 4 |
| 5 | BA Boeing | -10.40%-14.5 to +2.8 | Low | -8.12% | 25% | -8.45% | -14% · +3% | 4 |
| 6 | HD Home Depot (The) | -10.34%-11.0 to +6.2 | Low | -4.98% | 29% | -8.65% | -11% · +10% | 7 |
| 7 | COST Costco | +0.12%-3.7 to +1.9 | Low | +0.80% | 50% | -1.79% | -7% · +15% | 10 |
| 8 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +0.02%-3.9 to +0.4 | Low | +1.84% | 50% | +0.32% | -4% · +11% | 4 |
| 9 | OKLO meme | -7.32%-16.4 to +6.1 | Medium | +2.23% | 39% | -8.93% | -27% · +87% | 18 |
| 10 | AEO meme | -9.42%-11.7 to +7.6 | Low | -7.67% | 36% | -12.34% | -26% · +9% | 14 |
| 11 | NOW ServiceNow | -3.60%-6.7 to -2.1 | Low | -0.23% | 14% | -7.39% | -17% · +40% | 7 |
| 12 | NFLX Netflix | -6.90%-11.8 to +11.4 | Low | -3.28% | 29% | -7.41% | -12% · +15% | 7 |
| 13 | ORCL Oracle Corporation | -11.08%-29.3 to -0.3 | Low | -10.53% | 25% | -11.94% | -29% · +4% | 8 |
| 14 | UBER Uber | -0.46%-9.8 to +2.9 | Low | -3.00% | 40% | -4.85% | -12% · +4% | 5 |
| 15 | WMT Walmart | +2.11%-2.7 to +3.4 | Medium | +0.10% | 55% | +1.47% | -7% · +4% | 11 |
| 16 | TTD meme | -9.48%-25.5 to +11.4 | Low | -7.86% | 33% | -7.78% | -25% · +11% | 3 |
| 17 | AMAT Applied Materials | -3.45%-8.5 to +13.6 | Low | +4.08% | 46% | +1.53% | -14% · +40% | 13 |
| 18 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -0.55%-13.4 to +3.5 | Low | +2.28% | 40% | -1.95% | -13% · +25% | 5 |
| 19 | BE Bloom Energy | -4.22%-18.4 to +28.6 | Medium | +5.54% | 39% | +0.46% | -31% · +64% | 18 |
| 20 | BB meme | -11.05%-21.4 to +72.8 | Low | +11.27% | 29% | -11.20% | -21% · +73% | 14 |
| 21 | CRDO meme | -1.21%-10.4 to +19.5 | Low | +19.55% | 47% | -2.61% | -15% · +86% | 15 |
| 22 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive | +2.89%-7.5 to +4.7 | Low | +1.95% | 57% | -0.13% | -11% · +15% | 7 |
| 23 | APLD meme | -3.11%-21.3 to +96.3 | Low | +22.45% | 45% | -2.17% | -21% · +96% | 11 |
| 24 | INTC Intel | +3.36%-10.7 to +8.4 | Low | +0.37% | 67% | -1.25% | -11% · +8% | 3 |
| 25 | RKLB meme | +6.60%-16.1 to +40.9 | Low | +16.41% | 58% | +5.84% | -30% · +82% | 12 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next month from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.