After an unplanned insider sale, over the next week
An insider's sale outside a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan; entry the session after its SEC filing. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.19% over the next week after an unplanned insider sale (half of them between -0.87% and +2.09%), against +0.27% on any day.
Latest unplanned insider sales, last few sessions
Best after an unplanned insider sale
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | +11.40%+7.7 to +14.2 | Low | +11.10% | 100% | +10.20% | +8% · +14% | 13 |
| 2 | UPST meme | +7.00%-0.3 to +8.5 | Low | +5.37% | 75% | +5.78% | -2% · +9% | 12 |
| 3 | META Meta Platforms | +5.51%-0.4 to +7.3 | Low | +4.34% | 80% | +4.76% | 0% · +7% | 5 |
| 4 | WDC Western Digital | +2.97%+1.3 to +3.5 | Medium | +3.31% | 80% | +3.15% | -4% · +11% | 10 |
| 5 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +3.69%+0.7 to +3.9 | Low | +6.05% | 100% | +2.94% | 0% · +22% | 6 |
| 6 | MU Micron Technology | +4.72%-1.8 to +8.1 | Medium | +4.19% | 67% | +4.58% | -5% · +14% | 12 |
| 7 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | +13.21%+6.9 to +15.4 | Low | +7.92% | 80% | +13.27% | -13% · +18% | 5 |
| 8 | CVNA Carvana | +5.31%-1.7 to +6.0 | Low | +5.00% | 56% | +5.12% | -4% · +19% | 9 |
| 9 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +2.15%-0.2 to +2.6 | Medium | +1.73% | 64% | +2.25% | -4% · +9% | 11 |
| 10 | WULF meme | +2.81%-1.4 to +4.0 | Low | +3.28% | 75% | +2.38% | -1% · +9% | 4 |
| 11 | ONDS meme | +20.70%-5.2 to +20.7 | Low | +15.14% | 75% | +21.75% | -20% · +49% | 8 |
| 12 | CRWV meme | +2.70%-3.6 to +4.6 | High | +2.80% | 52% | +1.64% | -19% · +36% | 79 |
| 13 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +1.93%+0.1 to +5.0 | Medium | +2.15% | 74% | +2.17% | -10% · +20% | 23 |
| 14 | ARM meme | +33.39%-19.3 to +33.4 | Low | +22.27% | 80% | +31.66% | -19% · +33% | 5 |
| 15 | LITE Lumentum | +4.59%-2.0 to +10.7 | Low | +3.18% | 50% | +6.58% | -16% · +15% | 6 |
| 16 | NVDA Nvidia | +1.27%-0.7 to +5.8 | Medium | +1.83% | 64% | +1.26% | -4% · +9% | 11 |
| 17 | AMAT Applied Materials | +1.58%-0.1 to +1.6 | Medium | +4.26% | 71% | +3.95% | -9% · +19% | 14 |
| 18 | AVGO Broadcom | +1.15%-3.1 to +2.8 | Medium | +0.17% | 53% | +0.03% | -7% · +5% | 19 |
| 19 | CRDO meme | +7.25%+0.3 to +16.7 | Medium | +12.33% | 71% | +7.66% | -15% · +49% | 17 |
| 20 | APLD meme | +7.01%-3.9 to +39.1 | Low | +15.49% | 73% | +7.45% | -4% · +39% | 11 |
| 21 | WMT Walmart | +0.92%-1.4 to +1.8 | Medium | +0.95% | 64% | +1.25% | -3% · +5% | 11 |
| 22 | GME meme | +1.04%-1.3 to +1.4 | Low | +0.59% | 57% | -1.38% | -8% · +11% | 7 |
| 23 | APP AppLovin | +1.25%-5.4 to +19.1 | Low | +4.60% | 67% | +3.02% | -17% · +19% | 12 |
| 24 | NBIS meme | +1.77%-0.6 to +33.2 | Low | +7.99% | 50% | +0.69% | -14% · +33% | 10 |
| 25 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +0.47%-5.6 to +3.1 | Low | -3.11% | 60% | +0.61% | -17% · +3% | 5 |
Worst after an unplanned insider sale
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SNDK Sandisk | -10.02%-17.0 to -9.8 | Low | -10.44% | 0% | -7.82% | -17% · -5% | 4 |
| 2 | HD Home Depot (The) | -2.91%-4.4 to -2.5 | Low | -2.46% | 12% | -3.20% | -5% · +4% | 8 |
| 3 | OKLO meme | -5.00%-9.2 to -2.9 | Medium | -4.52% | 19% | -6.84% | -17% · +29% | 21 |
| 4 | VST Vistra Corp. | -3.19%-6.5 to -1.3 | Low | -3.56% | 0% | -3.88% | -7% · -1% | 4 |
| 5 | UBER Uber | -2.41%-6.4 to -2.0 | Low | -2.75% | 17% | -3.73% | -8% · +5% | 6 |
| 6 | TTD meme | -5.73%-9.4 to +1.3 | Low | -4.59% | 33% | -2.77% | -9% · +1% | 3 |
| 7 | BA Boeing | -0.98%-2.9 to 0.0 | Low | -1.21% | 0% | +0.88% | -3% · 0% | 4 |
| 8 | BE Bloom Energy | -7.15%-8.9 to -0.5 | Medium | -6.49% | 26% | -7.66% | -24% · +8% | 19 |
| 9 | MSFT Microsoft | -0.76%-2.8 to +0.5 | Medium | -1.18% | 38% | -1.22% | -7% · +2% | 8 |
| 10 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive | -0.62%-2.5 to +1.3 | Low | +0.07% | 29% | -1.25% | -4% · +8% | 7 |
| 11 | FICO Fair Isaac | -0.39%-1.5 to +0.2 | Low | +0.08% | 50% | +0.90% | -2% · +3% | 4 |
| 12 | COST Costco | -0.26%-1.6 to -0.1 | Medium | +0.32% | 20% | -0.75% | -3% · +8% | 10 |
| 13 | COHR Coherent Corp. | -3.11%-6.7 to +3.7 | Medium | +0.24% | 40% | -0.21% | -12% · +17% | 10 |
| 14 | ORCL Oracle Corporation | -0.90%-5.4 to -0.1 | Low | -2.03% | 22% | -0.64% | -7% · +2% | 9 |
| 15 | GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class … | -2.98%-7.1 to 0.0 | Low | -0.04% | 25% | -4.02% | -7% · +13% | 4 |
| 16 | LQDA meme | -0.05%-2.5 to +1.2 | Medium | -0.87% | 35% | -2.68% | -10% · +15% | 17 |
| 17 | RKLB meme | -1.78%-3.2 to +7.5 | Medium | +4.15% | 42% | -2.37% | -23% · +43% | 12 |
| 18 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +0.10%-2.5 to +1.8 | Low | -0.06% | 50% | +0.72% | -2% · +2% | 4 |
| 19 | NFLX Netflix | +0.01%-0.8 to +5.2 | Low | +1.27% | 57% | -0.34% | -5% · +5% | 7 |
| 20 | STX Seagate Technology | -0.61%-7.7 to +8.9 | Medium | +0.48% | 45% | -0.07% | -20% · +15% | 20 |
| 21 | INTC Intel | -0.64%-5.0 to +11.5 | Low | +1.95% | 33% | -1.21% | -5% · +12% | 3 |
| 22 | NOW ServiceNow | +0.28%-8.3 to +0.6 | Low | -2.79% | 71% | -2.95% | -16% · +2% | 7 |
| 23 | BB meme | -0.51%-0.8 to +16.4 | Low | +3.57% | 29% | -0.63% | -6% · +16% | 14 |
| 24 | AEO meme | +0.56%-1.4 to +4.1 | Medium | +1.60% | 71% | +0.34% | -6% · +11% | 14 |
| 25 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | +0.47%-5.6 to +3.1 | Low | -3.11% | 60% | +0.61% | -17% · +3% | 5 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.