After an unplanned insider sale, over the next quarter
An insider's sale outside a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan; entry the session after its SEC filing. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +2.12% over the next quarter after an unplanned insider sale (half of them between -4.06% and +18.23%), against +2.15% on any day.
Latest unplanned insider sales, last few sessions
Best after an unplanned insider sale
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COHR Coherent Corp. | +50.64%+36.6 to +57.1 | Low | +49.66% | 88% | +50.96% | -20% · +94% | 8 |
| 2 | STX Seagate Technology | +60.60%+0.3 to +73.8 | Low | +49.61% | 83% | +59.32% | -24% · +134% | 12 |
| 3 | WDC Western Digital | +54.13%-6.5 to +80.5 | Low | +51.30% | 78% | +56.32% | -17% · +109% | 9 |
| 4 | BE Bloom Energy | +47.14%-5.6 to +82.0 | Low | +45.07% | 71% | +43.85% | -26% · +109% | 17 |
| 5 | MU Micron Technology | +25.23%+23.7 to +75.1 | Low | +49.49% | 100% | +32.56% | +9% · +101% | 9 |
| 6 | LQDA meme | +37.94%+15.0 to +87.4 | Low | +44.98% | 85% | +36.28% | -8% · +110% | 13 |
| 7 | AEO meme | +24.23%-26.9 to +24.2 | Low | +12.55% | 55% | +19.38% | -27% · +80% | 11 |
| 8 | LITE Lumentum | +79.47%-2.8 to +131.1 | Low | +68.83% | 60% | +71.90% | -15% · +151% | 5 |
| 9 | RKLB meme | +24.59%-34.2 to +25.4 | Low | +7.13% | 55% | +23.46% | -55% · +71% | 11 |
| 10 | SNDK Sandisk | +79.68%-15.2 to +170.9 | Low | +78.76% | 50% | +71.93% | -15% · +171% | 4 |
| 11 | HOOD Robinhood Markets | +15.90%-46.1 to +15.9 | Low | +6.13% | 80% | +13.31% | -46% · +38% | 5 |
| 12 | WULF meme | +10.94%-20.3 to +87.5 | Low | +26.06% | 67% | +7.38% | -20% · +87% | 3 |
| 13 | CRDO meme | +10.58%-17.7 to +28.3 | Low | +33.08% | 60% | +5.57% | -34% · +142% | 15 |
| 14 | BB meme | -1.80%-1.8 to +223.8 | Low | +96.18% | 44% | -0.67% | -22% · +224% | 9 |
| 15 | AMD Advanced Micro Devices | -1.18%-10.8 to +178.4 | Low | +40.07% | 50% | -2.61% | -16% · +178% | 4 |
| 16 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +6.77%-22.5 to +46.9 | Low | +17.84% | 65% | +0.54% | -26% · +77% | 20 |
| 17 | APLD meme | -1.57%-10.5 to +124.4 | Low | +33.17% | 40% | -2.53% | -14% · +124% | 10 |
| 18 | UPST meme | +8.02%-34.8 to +9.0 | Low | -8.43% | 56% | -0.55% | -35% · +9% | 9 |
| 19 | CVNA Carvana | +10.17%+9.2 to +10.2 | Low | +11.42% | 88% | +7.86% | -16% · +30% | 8 |
| 20 | NOW ServiceNow | +0.81%-25.4 to +23.8 | Low | -1.83% | 50% | -2.55% | -36% · +25% | 6 |
| 21 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +1.61%-2.8 to +32.0 | Low | +10.18% | 64% | -0.30% | -12% · +42% | 11 |
| 22 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | -1.25%-16.1 to +26.4 | Low | +4.83% | 38% | -9.82% | -16% · +26% | 13 |
| 23 | NVDA Nvidia | +6.92%+1.3 to +12.3 | Low | +6.90% | 100% | +2.55% | +1% · +13% | 9 |
| 24 | MSFT Microsoft | -0.36%-17.3 to +16.5 | Low | +0.98% | 43% | -9.50% | -21% · +27% | 7 |
| 25 | AMAT Applied Materials | -3.83%-12.1 to +26.0 | Low | +0.28% | 42% | -7.72% | -28% · +63% | 12 |
Worst after an unplanned insider sale
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TTD meme | -28.09%-34.7 to -19.5 | Low | -27.43% | 0% | -35.24% | -35% · -20% | 3 |
| 2 | NFLX Netflix | -21.13%-25.7 to -16.5 | Low | -17.27% | 17% | -25.54% | -26% · +7% | 6 |
| 3 | ORCL Oracle Corporation | -34.87%-37.3 to -29.1 | Low | -27.00% | 12% | -37.67% | -38% · +25% | 8 |
| 4 | HD Home Depot (The) | -11.93%-14.7 to -6.7 | Low | -10.24% | 0% | -18.17% | -15% · -6% | 5 |
| 5 | CRWV meme | -21.95%-34.8 to -4.5 | Low | -16.85% | 34% | -27.08% | -43% · +41% | 68 |
| 6 | OKLO meme | -24.78%-33.8 to -5.1 | Low | -16.82% | 20% | -29.93% | -47% · +41% | 15 |
| 7 | UBER Uber | -8.93%-20.6 to -4.9 | Low | -7.82% | 25% | -17.45% | -21% · +7% | 4 |
| 8 | WMT Walmart | -6.08%-8.1 to +10.9 | Low | -0.49% | 36% | -14.11% | -12% · +17% | 11 |
| 9 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | -4.72%-13.3 to -0.6 | Low | -1.71% | 20% | -9.78% | -18% · +28% | 5 |
| 10 | GME meme | -0.03%-3.8 to +7.4 | Low | -1.23% | 50% | -9.74% | -18% · +7% | 6 |
| 11 | APP AppLovin | -21.81%-29.9 to +14.9 | Low | -13.98% | 33% | -23.73% | -45% · +26% | 12 |
| 12 | COST Costco | +2.85%-3.0 to +3.5 | Low | +2.51% | 60% | +0.19% | -6% · +19% | 10 |
| 13 | TTWO Take-Two Interactive | -0.40%-18.7 to -0.4 | Low | -4.44% | 33% | -7.91% | -19% · +5% | 6 |
| 14 | AVGO Broadcom | +2.63%-6.1 to +10.3 | Low | +6.28% | 59% | -2.34% | -10% · +29% | 17 |
| 15 | AAPL Apple Inc. | +3.90%-3.2 to +23.4 | Low | +6.98% | 75% | +0.96% | -3% · +23% | 4 |
| 16 | AMAT Applied Materials | -3.83%-12.1 to +26.0 | Low | +0.28% | 42% | -7.72% | -28% · +63% | 12 |
| 17 | MSFT Microsoft | -0.36%-17.3 to +16.5 | Low | +0.98% | 43% | -9.50% | -21% · +27% | 7 |
| 18 | NVDA Nvidia | +6.92%+1.3 to +12.3 | Low | +6.90% | 100% | +2.55% | +1% · +13% | 9 |
| 19 | PLTR Palantir Technologies | -1.25%-16.1 to +26.4 | Low | +4.83% | 38% | -9.82% | -16% · +26% | 13 |
| 20 | LLY Lilly (Eli) | +1.61%-2.8 to +32.0 | Low | +10.18% | 64% | -0.30% | -12% · +42% | 11 |
| 21 | NOW ServiceNow | +0.81%-25.4 to +23.8 | Low | -1.83% | 50% | -2.55% | -36% · +25% | 6 |
| 22 | CVNA Carvana | +10.17%+9.2 to +10.2 | Low | +11.42% | 88% | +7.86% | -16% · +30% | 8 |
| 23 | UPST meme | +8.02%-34.8 to +9.0 | Low | -8.43% | 56% | -0.55% | -35% · +9% | 9 |
| 24 | APLD meme | -1.57%-10.5 to +124.4 | Low | +33.17% | 40% | -2.53% | -14% · +124% | 10 |
| 25 | CRWD CrowdStrike | +6.77%-22.5 to +46.9 | Low | +17.84% | 65% | +0.54% | -26% · +77% | 20 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next quarter from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.