Aftermath
After a big gain, over the next week
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years. So "big" depends on the stock: a quiet stock's big day is a volatile stock's normal one; each stock's own line is shown under its name. Each stock's median gain after its own events of this kind in the past 5 years, from the close of the session the event was known. Updated .
The typical S&P 500 stock gained +0.36% over the next week after a big gain (half of them between +0.01% and +0.72%), against +0.27% on any day.
Latest big gains, last few sessions
| Entry | Stock | Its median, 1 week | Confidence | Rank | Up | Events | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | ARM | +5.2% on the day (line +4.7%) | -2.56% | High | #335 of 500 | 38% | 29 |
| Oct 2 | AWK American Water Works | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.42% | High | #218 of 500 | 55% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | BRUN | +3.9% on the day (line +3.8%) | +0.09% | Medium | #235 of 500 | 50% | 16 |
| Oct 2 | CNC Centene Corporation | +3.3% on the day (line +3.1%) | +0.59% | High | #189 of 500 | 58% | 74 |
| Oct 2 | CNP CenterPoint Energy | +1.6% on the day (line +1.4%) | -0.05% | High | #491 of 500 | 47% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | CSCO Cisco | +3.6% on the day (line +2.0%) | +0.74% | High | #130 of 500 | 55% | 65 |
| Oct 2 | CSX CSX Corporation | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.44% | High | #217 of 500 | 55% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | DE Deere & Company | +3.0% on the day (line +2.2%) | +0.85% | High | #23 of 500 | 58% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | ECHO EchoStar | +6.8% on the day (line +4.3%) | +0.50% | High | #206 of 500 | 53% | 72 |
| Oct 2 | FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +4.0% on the day (line +3.4%) | +0.55% | High | #210 of 500 | 52% | 63 |
| Oct 2 | IBRX | +10.8% on the day (line +7.2%) | -4.78% | High | #367 of 500 | 33% | 58 |
| Oct 2 | JBHT J.B. Hunt | +3.1% on the day (line +2.7%) | +0.54% | High | #196 of 500 | 55% | 69 |
| Oct 2 | LIN Linde plc | +2.1% on the day (line +1.4%) | +0.23% | High | #399 of 500 | 58% | 52 |
| Oct 2 | MNST Monster Beverage | +1.9% on the day (line +1.7%) | +0.75% | High | #56 of 500 | 60% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | MPWR Monolithic Power Systems | +5.8% on the day (line +4.3%) | -0.53% | High | #340 of 500 | 48% | 64 |
| Oct 2 | NSC Norfolk Southern | +2.3% on the day (line +1.6%) | +0.36% | High | #263 of 500 | 53% | 59 |
| Oct 2 | NTAP NetApp | +5.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | -0.03% | High | #317 of 500 | 49% | 65 |
| Oct 2 | P Everpure | +4.5% on the day (line +4.1%) | +0.58% | High | #211 of 500 | 56% | 70 |
| Oct 2 | ROK Rockwell Automation | +2.7% on the day (line +2.1%) | -0.04% | High | #364 of 500 | 50% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | RSG Republic Services | +1.6% on the day (line +1.4%) | +0.49% | High | #162 of 500 | 60% | 62 |
| Oct 2 | TER Teradyne | +8.0% on the day (line +4.5%) | -0.33% | High | #347 of 500 | 48% | 71 |
| Oct 2 | TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +4.7% on the day (line +4.1%) | -1.77% | High | #471 of 500 | 37% | 60 |
| Oct 2 | TSN Tyson Foods | +2.8% on the day (line +1.6%) | -0.24% | High | #440 of 500 | 48% | 67 |
| Oct 2 | UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +2.1% on the day (line +1.5%) | -0.06% | High | #454 of 500 | 49% | 61 |
| Oct 2 | VXUS | +1.1% on the day (line +1.1%) | +0.55% | High | #136 of 500 | 64% | 55 |
| Oct 1 | ACGL Arch Capital Group | +2.1% on the day (line +1.7%) | -0.13% | High | #424 of 500 | 49% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | ADP Automatic Data Processing | +2.3% on the day (line +1.5%) | +0.25% | High | #323 of 500 | 51% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | APA APA Corporation | +4.3% on the day (line +3.7%) | +1.27% | High | #150 of 500 | 53% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | BA Boeing | +3.4% on the day (line +2.5%) | +0.10% | High | #284 of 500 | 50% | 58 |
| Oct 1 | CAH Cardinal Health | +3.6% on the day (line +1.9%) | +0.53% | High | #123 of 500 | 60% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | CAPS | +7.1% on the day (line +6.5%) | -2.70% | High | #323 of 500 | 38% | 45 |
| Oct 1 | CB Chubb Limited | +1.9% on the day (line +1.5%) | -0.11% | High | #449 of 500 | 49% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | CDNS Cadence Design Systems | +6.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.73% | High | #197 of 500 | 53% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | CDW CDW Corporation | +6.0% on the day (line +2.4%) | +0.09% | High | #360 of 500 | 52% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | CHRW C.H. Robinson | +3.5% on the day (line +2.1%) | +0.68% | High | #118 of 500 | 64% | 69 |
| Oct 1 | CIEN Ciena | +7.8% on the day (line +5.2%) | +1.51% | High | #78 of 500 | 57% | 80 |
| Oct 1 | CINF Cincinnati Financial | +1.7% on the day (line +1.7%) | -0.15% | High | #469 of 500 | 48% | 67 |
| Oct 1 | COHR Coherent Corp. | +10.9% on the day (line +6.0%) | +0.70% | High | #204 of 500 | 54% | 78 |
| Oct 1 | COR Cencora | +3.2% on the day (line +1.8%) | -0.08% | High | #464 of 500 | 46% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | CRM Salesforce | +3.1% on the day (line +2.8%) | +1.49% | High | #120 of 500 | 56% | 59 |
| Oct 1 | CTSH Cognizant | +6.0% on the day (line +2.0%) | -0.17% | High | #450 of 500 | 49% | 72 |
| Oct 1 | DRI Darden Restaurants | +2.1% on the day (line +2.0%) | +0.34% | High | #287 of 500 | 54% | 57 |
| Oct 1 | EMR Emerson Electric | +2.2% on the day (line +2.1%) | +0.65% | High | #129 of 500 | 55% | 69 |
| Oct 1 | EOG EOG Resources | +2.6% on the day (line +2.2%) | +0.29% | High | #264 of 500 | 55% | 51 |
| Oct 1 | EQT EQT Corporation | +3.1% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.68% | High | #198 of 500 | 53% | 47 |
| Oct 1 | FICO Fair Isaac | +11.7% on the day (line +2.9%) | +0.59% | High | #200 of 500 | 54% | 67 |
| Oct 1 | FTV Fortive | +1.9% on the day (line +1.8%) | +0.75% | High | #97 of 500 | 56% | 64 |
| Oct 1 | GM General Motors | +3.0% on the day (line +2.6%) | -0.15% | High | #415 of 500 | 48% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | GWW W. W. Grainger | +2.9% on the day (line +1.6%) | +1.00% | High | #105 of 500 | 53% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | HAS Hasbro | +2.6% on the day (line +2.0%) | +0.18% | High | #365 of 500 | 52% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | HIG Hartford (The) | +2.8% on the day (line +1.5%) | +0.03% | High | #407 of 500 | 50% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | HPQ HP Inc. | +2.8% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.24% | High | #272 of 500 | 52% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | +3.0% on the day (line +2.4%) | +0.11% | High | #383 of 500 | 53% | 66 |
| Oct 1 | IBM IBM | +2.6% on the day (line +2.2%) | +0.60% | High | #182 of 500 | 56% | 71 |
| Oct 1 | JBL Jabil | +4.5% on the day (line +3.1%) | +2.06% | High | #63 of 500 | 60% | 63 |
| Oct 1 | KEYS Keysight Technologies | +2.7% on the day (line +2.5%) | -0.02% | High | #322 of 500 | 50% | 60 |
| Oct 1 | LITE Lumentum | +7.7% on the day (line +6.9%) | +1.59% | High | #168 of 500 | 54% | 83 |
| Oct 1 | MCK McKesson Corporation | +5.3% on the day (line +1.9%) | +0.69% | High | #77 of 500 | 61% | 61 |
| Oct 1 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | +6.2% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.37% | High | #245 of 500 | 61% | 62 |
| Oct 1 | NAMM | +35.7% on the day (line +6.8%) | -13.75% | Low | #471 of 500 | 0% | 3 |
Best after a big gain
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RTX RTX Corporation (+1.8% or better) | +1.50%+1.2 to +2.0 | High | +1.44% | 72% | +0.81% | -3% · +12% | 60 |
| 2 | BAC Bank of America (+1.7% or better) | +1.53%+1.1 to +2.0 | High | +0.92% | 68% | +0.49% | -10% · +6% | 57 |
| 3 | HWM Howmet Aerospace (+2.6% or better) | +1.64%+1.0 to +1.9 | High | +1.78% | 64% | +0.85% | -9% · +15% | 61 |
| 4 | WFC Wells Fargo (+2.0% or better) | +1.50%+0.8 to +1.8 | High | +1.25% | 72% | +0.58% | -9% · +7% | 60 |
| 5 | OKE Oneok (+2.1% or better) | +1.23%+0.9 to +1.8 | High | +1.38% | 67% | +0.65% | -11% · +14% | 57 |
| 6 | LYV Live Nation Entertainment (+2.2% or better) | +1.43%+0.8 to +1.8 | High | +0.80% | 66% | +0.22% | -8% · +7% | 56 |
| 7 | WAB Wabtec (+1.8% or better) | +1.16%+0.5 to +1.4 | High | +1.09% | 65% | +0.57% | -7% · +16% | 60 |
| 8 | TJX TJX Companies (+1.5% or better) | +1.01%+0.4 to +1.3 | High | +0.78% | 67% | +0.29% | -5% · +6% | 51 |
| 9 | EIX Edison International (+2.1% or better) | +0.70%+0.5 to +1.0 | High | +0.57% | 63% | +0.08% | -8% · +7% | 67 |
| 10 | MSI Motorola Solutions (+1.6% or better) | +1.21%+0.8 to +1.9 | High | +1.02% | 66% | -0.05% | -4% · +6% | 53 |
| 11 | IWM meme (+1.5% or better) | +1.25%+0.3 to +1.5 | High | +0.83% | 69% | +0.16% | -6% · +6% | 51 |
| 12 | FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (+1.9% or better) | +1.34%+0.7 to +1.8 | High | +0.90% | 65% | +0.29% | -9% · +9% | 57 |
| 13 | NFLX Netflix (+2.3% or better) | +1.81%+0.9 to +2.1 | High | +1.36% | 65% | +0.60% | -12% · +22% | 46 |
| 14 | EME Emcor (+2.7% or better) | +1.22%+0.7 to +1.8 | High | +1.53% | 70% | +0.47% | -11% · +19% | 70 |
| 15 | CBOE Cboe Global Markets (+2.1% or better) | +1.08%+0.5 to +1.6 | High | +1.05% | 66% | +0.21% | -10% · +9% | 67 |
| 16 | EVRG Evergy (+1.2% or better) | +0.70%+0.3 to +1.1 | High | +0.59% | 66% | +0.17% | -5% · +7% | 61 |
| 17 | C Citigroup (+2.2% or better) | +1.39%+0.8 to +1.6 | High | +0.84% | 60% | +0.57% | -13% · +11% | 72 |
| 18 | QQQ meme (+1.5% or better) | +1.08%+0.6 to +1.5 | High | +0.59% | 65% | +0.27% | -8% · +7% | 52 |
| 19 | DVA DaVita (+2.1% or better) | +1.60%+0.8 to +2.2 | High | +0.56% | 65% | +0.52% | -21% · +11% | 57 |
| 20 | CASY Casey's (+2.2% or better) | +1.02%+0.4 to +1.6 | High | +1.44% | 68% | +0.36% | -12% · +18% | 66 |
| 21 | BKR Baker Hughes (+2.5% or better) | +0.73%+0.3 to +0.8 | High | +0.84% | 60% | -0.10% | -6% · +11% | 55 |
| 22 | NDSN Nordson Corporation (+1.9% or better) | +0.71%+0.2 to +0.9 | High | +0.64% | 62% | -0.07% | -6% · +8% | 63 |
| 23 | MU Micron Technology (+5.6% or better) | +2.21%+1.7 to +3.0 | High | +2.80% | 60% | +1.55% | -21% · +38% | 75 |
| 24 | MA Mastercard (+1.6% or better) | +0.76%+0.5 to +1.0 | High | +0.53% | 63% | -0.27% | -6% · +7% | 54 |
| 25 | DE Deere & Company (+2.2% or better) | +0.85%0.0 to +1.1 | High | +0.36% | 58% | +0.45% | -14% · +9% | 62 |
Worst after a big gain
| # | Stock | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Average | Up | vs SPY | Worst · best | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VMRK Vivmark Residential (+1.5% or better) | -0.38%-0.6 to 0.0 | High | -0.27% | 42% | -0.55% | -7% · +7% | 65 |
| 2 | NVR NVR, Inc. (+2.1% or better) | -0.86%-1.2 to -0.5 | High | -0.50% | 41% | -1.12% | -8% · +6% | 64 |
| 3 | KVUE Kenvue (+1.8% or better) | -0.33%-0.7 to -0.2 | High | +0.02% | 38% | -0.68% | -7% · +10% | 40 |
| 4 | IEX IDEX Corporation (+1.8% or better) | -0.30%-0.7 to +0.2 | High | +0.03% | 45% | -1.25% | -11% · +9% | 64 |
| 5 | BDX Becton Dickinson (+1.8% or better) | -0.45%-1.1 to -0.1 | High | +0.21% | 41% | -0.05% | -6% · +8% | 64 |
| 6 | UPS United Parcel Service (+2.0% or better) | -0.46%-0.7 to 0.0 | High | -0.65% | 46% | -0.96% | -18% · +10% | 69 |
| 7 | BSX Boston Scientific (+1.6% or better) | -1.38%-2.3 to -0.9 | High | -1.17% | 40% | -0.93% | -12% · +8% | 68 |
| 8 | TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific (+2.0% or better) | -0.24%-0.4 to +0.2 | High | +0.60% | 46% | -0.68% | -11% · +13% | 61 |
| 9 | TSCO Tractor Supply (+2.1% or better) | -0.42%-0.9 to +0.1 | High | -0.26% | 43% | -1.34% | -9% · +13% | 67 |
| 10 | CNP CenterPoint Energy (+1.5% or better) | -0.05%-0.2 to +0.3 | High | +0.30% | 47% | +0.27% | -8% · +5% | 60 |
| 11 | AOS A. O. Smith (+1.9% or better) | -0.39%-0.7 to +0.1 | High | -0.10% | 44% | -0.97% | -8% · +15% | 61 |
| 12 | PRU Prudential Financial (+1.7% or better) | -0.11%-0.4 to +0.3 | High | -0.27% | 47% | -0.72% | -9% · +7% | 66 |
| 13 | EQIX Equinix (+1.7% or better) | +0.03%-0.1 to +0.4 | High | +0.34% | 53% | -0.26% | -12% · +13% | 57 |
| 14 | STZ Constellation Brands (+1.9% or better) | -0.20%-0.6 to +0.3 | High | +0.18% | 48% | -0.46% | -6% · +8% | 73 |
| 15 | MCD McDonald's (+1.3% or better) | -0.12%-0.6 to +0.1 | High | -0.15% | 47% | -0.54% | -7% · +8% | 62 |
| 16 | WEN meme (+3.0% or better) | -0.68%-1.5 to -0.3 | High | -0.69% | 36% | -1.38% | -11% · +10% | 72 |
| 17 | LYB LyondellBasell (+2.8% or better) | -0.99%-1.7 to -0.6 | High | -0.41% | 40% | -1.26% | -9% · +10% | 70 |
| 18 | HRL Hormel Foods (+1.7% or better) | -0.84%-1.3 to 0.0 | High | -0.29% | 42% | -0.90% | -11% · +17% | 69 |
| 19 | PKG Packaging Corporation of … (+1.9% or better) | -0.12%-0.5 to +0.3 | High | +0.33% | 48% | -0.21% | -8% · +7% | 64 |
| 20 | PFE Pfizer (+1.7% or better) | -0.39%-1.1 to 0.0 | High | -0.38% | 41% | -0.76% | -7% · +7% | 63 |
| 21 | NUAI meme (+11.6% or better) | -0.09%-0.3 to 0.0 | High | +3.26% | 41% | -1.22% | -33% · +118% | 78 |
| 22 | MDT Medtronic (+1.6% or better) | -0.75%-1.3 to +0.2 | High | -0.15% | 43% | -0.45% | -7% · +6% | 61 |
| 23 | SBAC SBA Communications (+1.9% or better) | -0.71%-1.3 to -0.1 | High | -0.67% | 40% | -1.01% | -11% · +10% | 65 |
| 24 | VICI Vici Properties (+1.5% or better) | -0.64%-1.4 to 0.0 | High | -0.37% | 43% | -0.85% | -9% · +6% | 60 |
| 25 | PSA Public Storage (+1.9% or better) | -0.14%-0.5 to +0.5 | High | -0.11% | 47% | -0.55% | -11% · +7% | 66 |
Stocks with at least 3 independent periods, ordered on an evidence-weighted median: each stock's median is pulled toward the S&P 500 typical value in proportion to its uncertainty, so a lucky handful of events cannot top the list. Confidence counts independent holding periods (overlapping ones count once): High 20+, Medium 8+, Low 3+. Median and average gain over the next week from the entry close; Up = share of events followed by a gain; vs SPY = median gain minus SPY over the same sessions. Ranks on the stock pages place each stock among the S&P 500 stocks. Small samples are noisy, and the past does not repeat on schedule. Not advice.