MU
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- MU −2.05% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 4Q2026 Sep 30 after the close: EPS $33.42 vs $31.82 expected (beat, +$1.60, +5.0%); revenue $54.2B. The stock moved +3.0% on Thu's session (+2.9 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, earnings beat (Oct 1): After its 18 earnings beats in the past 5 years, MU typically lost 0.5% over the next day (median) and was higher only 44% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.0% and +3.0%. An ordinary day: +0.1%. Among S&P 500 stocks after earnings beats, that ranks #326 of 497.
- 34 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 72% positive over the week.
- 11 analyst actions in the past 10 days (4 positive, 0 negative); latest: Rosenblatt maintained Buy, raised target $1,500 → $1,900.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.1%#172 H | +0.7%#87 H | +4.1%#11 H | +9.0%#63 M |
| Big drop (-4.2% or worse) | 65 | -0.1%#290 H | 0.0%#295 H | +3.3%#134 H | +8.3%#215 M |
| Big gain (+5.6% or better) | 75 | +0.3%#144 H | +2.2%#21 H | +3.8%#132 H | +16.8%#113 M |
| Earnings beat Oct 1 | 18 | -0.5%#326 M | 0.0%#245 M | +0.9%#253 M | +8.3%#184 M |
| Earnings miss | 2 | +0.4%– | -4.5%– | +13.1%– | +11.3%– |
| 52-week high | 14 | -0.4%#267 M | +3.4%#62 M | +9.0%#163 M | +34.6%#109 L |
| 52-week low | 1 | -12.9%– | -5.8%– | +8.2%– | +61.5%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | -1.3%#463 L | -2.5%#453 L | -4.8%#366 L | -5.0%#332 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 5 | -2.5%#391 L | +0.4%#249 L | +1.0%#250 L | +7.6%#189 L |
| RSI oversold | 4 | +1.1%#242 L | -2.4%#342 L | +10.6%#104 L | +0.6%#272 L |
| RSI overbought | 21 | -0.9%#484 H | +2.9%#129 H | +10.5%#131 M | +14.3%#92 M |
| Reddit spike Oct 1 | 50 | +1.2%#6 H | +0.7%#32 H | +4.0%#19 H | +21.2%#2 M |
| Analyst upgrade | 3 | +4.0%#8 L | +0.7%#8 L | +27.9%#5 L | +65.9%– |
| Analyst downgrade | 1 | +5.5%– | +3.4%– | +23.5%– | +75.5%– |
| Insider buy | 1 | +0.6%– | +7.3%– | +16.0%– | +23.7%– |
| Insider unplanned sale | 12 | -1.3%#26 M | +4.7%#5 M | +12.2%#7 M | +25.2%#5 L |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is MU's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big gain (+5.6% or better)
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 75 | +0.27% (-0.1 to +0.5) | High | #144 of 500 | 55% | -0.42% |
-8%
+11%
|
|
| 1 week | 75 | +2.21% (+1.7 to +3.0) | High | #21 of 500 | 60% | +1.55% |
-21%
+38%
|
|
| 1 month | 74 ≈41 indep. | +3.79% (-0.2 to +6.7) | High | #132 of 500 | 59% | +2.12% |
-32%
+87%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 72 ≈15 indep. | +16.81% (+4.8 to +24.8) | Medium | #113 of 499 | 71% | +8.21% |
-40%
+206%
|
Range of outcomes: all of MU's big gains in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big gain by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 52 | +0.3%H vs +0.1% | +2.1%H vs +1.0% | +6.7%H vs +5.9% | +24.8%M vs +21.5% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 23 | +0.2%H vs +0.1% | +3.9%H vs +0.6% | -0.3%M vs +1.0% | +4.8%L vs +3.1% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 59 | +0.3%H vs 0.0% | +2.1%H vs 0.0% | +3.5%H vs +2.8% | +20.8%M vs +14.8% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 16 | -1.6%M vs +0.3% | +5.5%M vs +1.8% | +4.0%M vs +4.5% | +8.3%L vs +2.0% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 55 | +0.5%H vs +0.1% | +2.1%H vs +0.6% | +4.3%H vs +3.6% | +18.3%M vs +10.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 20 | -1.0%H vs +0.2% | +3.4%H vs +1.2% | -2.4%M vs +4.6% | +12.6%M vs +5.5% |
The same event split by where MU stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big gains
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sep 4 @ $1,016.59 | +6.1% on the day (line +5.6%) | -1.6% | -9.1% | … | … |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $874.66 | +18.4% on the day (line +5.6%) | -5.9% | +0.8% | +6.7% | … |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Jul 21 @ $970.82 | +12.2% on the day (line +5.6%) | -1.2% | -15.5% | -3.5% | … |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Jun 18 @ $1,133.82 | +8.7% on the day (line +5.5%) | +6.8% | -0.1% | -14.4% | -10.4% |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Jun 8 @ $949.13 | +9.9% on the day (line +5.4%) | -1.4% | +14.6% | +4.5% | +5.4% |
| May 26, 2026 | May 26 @ $895.74 | +19.3% on the day (line +5.2%) | +3.6% | +18.8% | +35.5% | +4.2% |
| May 4, 2026 | May 4 @ $576.36 | +6.3% on the day (line +5.0%) | +11.1% | +38.0% | +87.3% | +54.9% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Apr 22 @ $487.41 | +8.5% on the day (line +4.8%) | -1.2% | +6.4% | +56.3% | +103.2% |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Apr 14 @ $465.59 | +9.2% on the day (line +4.8%) | -2.0% | -3.5% | +72.6% | +94.2% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mar 31 @ $337.79 | +5.0% on the day (line +4.7%) | +8.9% | +20.4% | +53.1% | +205.6% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Mar 13 @ $425.89 | +5.1% on the day (line +4.7%) | +3.7% | -0.8% | +9.3% | +130.5% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Mar 4 @ $400.54 | +5.5% on the day (line +4.7%) | -0.9% | +4.5% | -8.6% | +169.5% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Feb 11 @ $410.10 | +9.9% on the day (line +4.7%) | +0.9% | +1.7% | +3.8% | +95.9% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Jan 27 @ $410.00 | +5.4% on the day (line +4.5%) | +6.1% | +2.2% | +1.3% | +23.0% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Jan 16 @ $362.54 | +7.8% on the day (line +4.5%) | +0.6% | +7.3% | +16.0% | +23.7% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.